WEATHERNATOR FORECASTING CONTEST FORECAST PAGE

Weathernator Forecasting Contest Discussion

Welcome to the Weatherator Forecasting Contest Practice Discussion.  During the contest you will come to this page and use its information to create your forecasts.  Here I will provide a weather map and will write a discussion that explains what is on the map and how it relates to your forecasts.  Below you will find data from various models that will give you possibilities for temperatures to be used in your forecasts.

Practice Discussion:

You can see on the weather map above that we will have a strong area of low pressure that will be moving through the lower Mississippi Valley.  This low will have lots of moisture to work with.  Remember that when there is enough moisture available , these lows tend to create clouds and rain.  Meteorologists who created this map indicate that rain is likely.   The reds on the map indicate that strong storms will also be possible.  While the rain outlook for this forecast looks rather simple, we could have some concerns regarding temperatures.  Typically the low temperatures occur just before sunrise and the high temperatures occur during the middle of the afternoon.  In this forecast scenario the area of low pressure will be moving east during the evening hours.  Cooler air will begin to move in on the back side of its counterclockwise circulation. Be sure to check the 'hourly' temperatures one of the models shows that the low may occur late that evening and maybe cooler that the morning low temperature indicated by the models.  Good Luck.

--Todd Warren

Forecast Model Temperatures
High Temperatures
EURO RPM GFS NAM NWS
67 69 73 71 71
Low Temperatures
60 57 58 59 60
Chance for Rain
100% 90% 90% 80% 100%
Hourly Temperatures & Cloud Cover
GFS Model
12a 3a 6a 9a 12p 3p 6p 9p 12a
60 61 61 64 69 70 67 62 57
OV OV OV OV OV SC FW CL CL
NAM Model
60 61 61 64 68 68 63 64 60
OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL CL
OV=Cloudy  BK=Mostly Cloudy  SC=Partly Cloudy  FW=Mostly Clear  CL=Clear

FINAL Contest Standings
Rank School Name Pts/Day
1 Fouke Elementary 5.67
2 North Desoto Pierce 5.79
3 Crestview-Garrison 3 5.80
4 Wake Village-Burns 6.07
4 Ramsey Roaring Rapids 6.07
4 Crestview-Garrison 1 6.07
7 Crestview-Garrison 2 6.20
8 Taylor Elementary 6.40
9 Nashville Jr. High 6.46
10 Barmore Blazing Birds 6.60
11 North Desoto West 7.29
12 Crestview-Armstrong 3 7.33
13 Wake Village-Swann 7.79
14 Kilpatrick Elementary 7.83
15 Crestview-Armstrong 2 8.60
16 Crestview-Armstrong 1 8.73
17 Elm Grove Elementary 10.47

Weathernator Forecasting Contest Results Day 15 of 15 
FINAL
School Name Fcst Hi Obs Hi Pts  Fcst Lo Obs Lo Pts Rain ? Pts Snow ? Pts Day Pts Prev Pts Total Pts Pts/Day
Day 15 65 37
Crestview-Armstrong 1 53 12 37 0 N 0 Y 5 17 114 131 8.73
Crestview-Armstrong 2 55 10 35 2 N 0 N 0 12 117 129 8.60
Crestview-Armstrong 3 54 11 33 4 N 0 N 0 15 95 110 7.33
Crestview-Garrison 1 55 10 36 1 Y 5 N 0 16 75 91 6.07
Crestview-Garrison 2 56 9 36 1 N 0 N 0 10 83 93 6.20
Crestview-Garrison 3 55 10 36 1 N 0 N 0 11 76 87 5.80
Elm Grove Elementary 56 9 36 1 Y 5 N 0 15 142 157 10.47
Fouke Elementary 53 12 38 1 Y 5 N 0 18 67 85 5.67
Kilpatrick Elementary 55 10 39 2 Y 5 N 0 17 77 94 7.83
Nashville Jr. High 54 11 38 1 Y 5 N 0 17 67 84 6.46
North Desoto Pierce 54 11 38 1 N 0 N 0 12 69 81 5.79
North Desoto West 55 10 37 0 N 0 N 0 10 92 102 7.29
Ramsey Roaring Rapids 54 11 36 1 Y 5 N 0 17 74 91 6.07
Barmore Blazing Birds 55 10 38 1 Y 5 N 0 16 83 99 6.60
Taylor Elementary 54 11 36 1 Y 5 N 0 17 79 96 6.40
Wake Village-Burns 54 11 37 0 Y 5 N 0 16 75 91 6.07
Wake Village-Swann 52 13 37 0 Y 5 N 0 18 91 109 7.79