WEATHERNATOR FORECASTING CONTEST

2017 Weathernator Forecasting Contest Champions:

Walnut Hill Elementary - Lincoln A

Weathernator Forecasting Contest Discussion

Congratulations the the Lincoln A team from Walnut Hill Elementary they are the 2017 Weathernator Forecasting Contest champions.  The 5th grade team from Walnut Hill held off a furious rally from the Ramsey Roaring Rapids team of Princeton Elementary.  The Ramsey team was in 21st place after week one of the contest and finished a close second after the three weeks of forecasting.

Teams are given points during the contest for being wrong.  They get one point for each degree they miss the high and low forecasts.  They are also asked whether it will rain and whether it will snow.  They receive 5 points for missing each precipitation forecast. That means the lowest score wins. This year we forecasted for Shreveport during week one, Texarkana for week two, and Portland, OR for week three. 

It turns out the that final day of the contest provided the trickiest day of forecasting for Portland.  The toughest question was whether or not it would snow.  The Lincoln A team said YES to snow.  The Ramsey Roaring Rapids said NO.  It DID NOT snow!  While the Rapids' final forecast was four points more accurate than the Lincoln A team,  the solid temperature forecasting from 'the Lincolns' throughout the 3 weeks gave them 3 fewer points in the contest.  Another footnote from the final day of the contest, congrats to the Montiel team from Highland Park Elementary.  They were the only team with a PERFECT final day forecast.

I would like to say congratulations to ALL teams in this year's contest.  All meteorologists make mistakes.  Trust me, it comes with the territory.  The key to being a good meteorologist is learning from your mistakes.  I am very proud to say that you all did just that.  During the first week of the contest, teams averaged a score of 9.23 points per day.  During the final week you averaged just 7.42 points per day!  WELL DONE!

Students, if you enjoyed taking part in this year's competition, please give your teachers a big Thank You.  They are the ones who took on the extra time and work each day to make your participation possible.  Enjoy the rest of the spring in school and see you next year!!   --Todd Warren

2017 Weathernator Forecasting Contest FINAL STANDINGS
Rank School Name Pts/Day
1 Walnut Hill-Lincoln A 4.93
2 Ramsey Roaring Rapids 5.13
3 N. Desoto-Humelsine 5.71
4 Crestview-Stires 2 5.73
5 Wake Village-Swann 5.92
6 Walnut Hill-Lincoln B 5.93
7 Barmore Blazing Beaches 5.93
8 Donnie Bickham Middle 6.13
9 N. Desoto-Parker 6.21
10 Waggoner Creek 6.23
11 Walnut Hill-Burke A 6.36
12 Crestview-Stires 3 6.47
13 Fouke Elementary 6.91
14 Walnut Hill-Hernandez 7.07
15 Walnut Hill-Arinder B 7.08
16 Crestview-Burks 1 7.13
17 Crestview-Stires 1 7.13
18 Highland Park-McGraw 7.21
19 Walnut Hill-Burke B 7.29
20 Walnut Hill-Arinder A 7.33
21 N. Desoto-Goodman 7.50
22 N Desoto-Pierce 7.50
23 Highland Park-Vaughn 7.57
24 Crestview-Burks 3 7.73
25 Greenacres Middle 7.86
26 N. Desoto-Darden 8.00
27 Wake Village-Jolley 8.50
28 Highland Park-Montiel 8.50
29 Crestview-Burks 2 8.73
30 N. Desoto-Harkins 8.93
31 Walnut Hill-Amos 8.93
32 Walnut Hill-Hatcher 9.40
33 N. Desoto-Snider 12.09
34 N. Desoto-West 13.09

2017 Weathernator Forecasting Contest Results Day 15 of 15 
School Name Fcst Hi Obs Hi Pts  Fcst Lo Obs Lo Pts Rain ? Pts Snow ? Pts Day Pts Prev Pts Total Pts Pts/Day
Day 15 47 35 YES NO
Crestview-Stires 1 48 1 40 5 YES N 0 6 101 107 7.13
Crestview-Stires 2 47 0 36 1 YES N 0 1 85 86 5.73
Crestview-Stires 3 45 2 35 0 YES N 0 2 95 97 6.47
Crestview-Burks 1 44 3 32 3 YES Y 5 11 96 107 7.13
Crestview-Burks 2 44 3 32 3 YES Y 5 11 120 131 8.73
Crestview-Burks 3 48 1 34 1 YES Y 5 7 109 116 7.73
Donnie Bickham Middle 46 1 35 0 YES Y 5 6 86 92 6.13
Fouke Elementary 47 0 35 out 0 YES 0 0 76 76 6.91
Greenacres Middle 46 1 38 3 YES Y 5 9 101 110 7.86
Highland Park-Montiel 47 0 35 0 YES N 0 0 119 119 8.50
Highland Park-McGraw 48 1 34 1 YES Y 5 7 94 101 7.21
Highland Park-Vaughn 47 0 34 1 YES Y 5 6 100 106 7.57
N Desoto-Pierce 45 2 38 3 YES Y 5 10 95 105 7.50
N. Desoto-Goodman 44 3 37 2 YES Y 5 10 95 105 7.50
N. Desoto-Snider 47 0 35 out 0 YES 0 0 133 133 12.09
N. Desoto-West 47 0 35 out 0 YES 0 0 144 144 13.09
N. Desoto-Humelsine 43 4 37 2 YES N 0 6 74 80 5.71
N. Desoto-Parker 44 3 34 1 YES n 0 4 83 87 6.21
N. Desoto-Harkins 43 4 33 2 YES N 0 6 119 125 8.93
N. Desoto-Darden 43 4 34 1 YES N 0 5 107 112 8.00
Ramsey Roaring Rapids 45 2 36 1 YES N 0 3 74 77 5.13
Barmore Blazing Beaches 45 2 35 0 YES Y 5 7 82 89 5.93
Waggoner Creek 47 0 39 4 YES N 0 4 77 81 6.23
Wake Village-Swann 48 1 34 1 YES N 0 2 69 71 5.92
Wake Village-Jolley 47 0 35 OUT 0 YES 0 0 51 51 8.50
Walnut Hill-Lincoln A 46 1 36 1 YES Y 5 7 67 74 4.93
Walnut Hill-Lincoln B 46 1 37 2 YES Y 5 8 81 89 5.93
Walnut Hill-Arinder A 47 0 35 out 0 YES 0 0 88 88 7.33
Walnut Hill-Burke A 45 2 36 1 YES Y 5 8 81 89 6.36
Walnut Hill-Burke B 46 1 36 1 YES Y 5 7 95 102 7.29
Walnut Hill-Hatcher 44 3 34 1 YES Y 5 9 132 141 9.40
Walnut Hill-Amos 44 3 34 1 YES Y 5 9 125 134 8.93
Walnut Hill-Hernandez 44 3 39 4 YES N 0 7 99 106 7.07
Walnut Hill-Arinder B 47 0 35 out 0 YES 0 0 85 85 7.08

2017 Weathernator Forecasting Contest Results Day 14 of 15 
School Name Fcst Hi Obs Hi Pts  Fcst Lo Obs Lo Pts Rain ? Pts Snow ? Pts Day Pts Prev Pts Total Pts Pts/Day
Day 14 53 43 YES
Crestview-Stires 1 48 5 40 3 YES N 0 8 93 101 7.21
Crestview-Stires 2 52 1 43 0 YES N 0 1 84 85 6.07
Crestview-Stires 3 54 1 44 1 YES N 0 2 93 95 6.79
Crestview-Burks 1 49 4 40 3 YES N 0 7 89 96 6.86
Crestview-Burks 2 50 3 37 6 YES N 0 9 111 120 8.57
Crestview-Burks 3 49 4 39 4 YES N 0 8 101 109 7.79
Donnie Bickham Middle 48 5 42 1 YES N 0 6 80 86 6.14
Fouke Elementary 49 4 40 3 YES N 0 7 69 76 6.91
Greenacres Middle 50 3 41 2 YES N 0 5 96 101 7.77
Highland Park-Montiel 53 0 40 3 YES N 0 3 116 119 9.15
Highland Park-McGraw 49 4 44 1 YES N 0 5 89 94 7.23
Highland Park-Vaughn 51 2 40 3 YES N 0 5 95 100 7.69
N Desoto-Pierce 50 3 40 3 YES N 0 6 89 95 7.31
N. Desoto-Goodman 49 4 42 1 YES N 0 5 90 95 7.31
N. Desoto-Snider 65 12 43 0 NO 5 N 0 17 116 133 12.09
N. Desoto-West 64 11 42 1 NO 5 N 0 17 127 144 13.09
N. Desoto-Humelsine 51 2 39 4 YES N 0 6 68 74 5.69
N. Desoto-Parker 50 3 42 1 YES N 0 4 79 83 6.38
N. Desoto-Harkins 50 3 42 1 YES N 0 4 115 119 9.15
N. Desoto-Darden 49 4 41 2 YES N 0 6 101 107 8.23
Ramsey Roaring Rapids 51 2 43 0 YES N 0 2 72 74 5.29
Barmore Blazing Beaches 51 2 43 0 YES N 0 2 80 82 5.86
Waggoner Creek 50 3 43 0 YES N 0 3 74 77 6.42
Wake Village-Swann 53 0 43 OUT 0 N 0 0 69 69 6.27
Wake Village-Jolley 53 0 43 OUT 0 N 0 0 51 51 8.50
Walnut Hill-Lincoln A 52 1 42 1 YES N 0 2 65 67 4.79
Walnut Hill-Lincoln B 52 1 42 1 YES N 0 2 79 81 5.79
Walnut Hill-Arinder A 50 3 37 6 YES N 0 9 79 88 7.33
Walnut Hill-Burke A 50 3 42 1 YES N 0 4 77 81 6.23
Walnut Hill-Burke B 51 2 42 1 YES N 0 3 92 95 7.31
Walnut Hill-Hatcher 51 2 37 6 YES N 0 8 124 132 9.43
Walnut Hill-Amos 51 2 36 7 YES N 0 9 116 125 8.93
Walnut Hill-Hernandez 50 3 44 1 YES N 0 4 95 99 7.07
Walnut Hill-Arinder B 49 4 36 7 YES N 0 11 74 85 7.08

Forecast Model Temperatures for TOMORROW'S FORECAST
High Temperatures
EURO RPM GFS NAM NWS
44 45 46 48 48

Daytime Wind: SE 10

Low Temperatures
34 34 35 38 40

Overnight Wind: SE 5-10

Chance for Rain/Snow
90%/30% 90%/30% 90%/30% 80%/20% 100%/10%
Hourly Temperatures & Cloud Cover
GFS Model
12a 3a 6a 9a 12p 3p 6p 9p 12a
41 39 38 37 40 43 44 40 39
OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
NAM Model
45 42 40 39 42 46 46 43 41
OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
OV=Cloudy  BK=Mostly Cloudy  SC=Partly Cloudy  FW=Mostly Clear  CL=Clear