2020 Weathernator Forecasting Contest

Teachers, would you be interested in giving your class a chance to experience what it’s like to be a meteorologist. I am now accepting requests for schools to participate in the 2020 Weathernator Forecasting Contest.

Here is how it works. In the month of January, I will visit each school that is participating in the contest. Evening newscast preps mean that I must visit in the morning. During this visit, I will discuss weather maps and how the systems on those maps combine with parts of the water cycle to produce clouds and precipitation. I will then use this website to teach your kids how to make a forecast. This page will contain an actual weather map and some of the same model data that I use each day. I will show them how to use the weather map and the model numbers. Everyone in your class will make their very own forecast during my visit with my help. This will give them the knowledge that they will use once the contest begins.

The contest will take place for three weeks during the month of February. It is open to any class in grades four through eight. The first week we will forecast for Shreveport. In the second week, we will forecast for Texarkana. In the third week, we will forecast for a ‘cold’ weather city in the US where snow could be more of an issue. You can divide your class into as many ‘teams’ as you like.

Ms. Krafft’s 4th-grade team at Highland Park Elementary in Texarkana. 2019 Weathernator Forecasting Contest Champions

Each day of the contest I will post on this page a weather map, forecast model data, and a short video that you can watch in class. Your teams will create forecasts that answer four simple questions. What will be the next day’s high temperature? What will be the next day’s low temperature? Will it rain? Will it snow? You will then email me our forecasts each weekday. I give points based on inaccuracy. Just like in golf, the lowest score wins. Worried about missing a day? Not a problem. Standings are determined by points per day, not just points. If your team wins, I’ll visit your class and award you the coveted ‘Weathernator Trophy’.

If you would like to participate in the next contest or have any questions, drop me an email at twarren@ktalnews.tv You can also contact me on Facebook at my fan page Todd Warren Weather.

2020 Contest Practice Forecast

Practice Discussion

Welcome to the 2020 Weathernator Forecasting Contest! This information will be used during my classroom visits to prepare teams participating in this year’s contest. During the contest, I will update this page with information used to make a forecast that will include a brief discussion of the weather pattern that you will be forecasting.

In the practice forecast, first look at the map above. You can see an area of low pressure with an associated cold and warm front. That low will be sitting over SW Louisiana south of Shreveport during the morning. It will likely track to the northeast during the day. You can see that meteorologists who prepared the map also indicate where the rain chances will be highest.

A look at model data below shows the range of possible morning low temperatures of 47 to 52 degrees with most models indicating a low of around 49 degrees. The model range for the possible afternoon high is anywhere from 57 degrees to 63 degrees. Most models show a possible high somewhere in the low 60s. The final high and low temperatures will greatly depend on where the low eventually tracks. If it tracks too far to the northwest, both the high and low will be warmer. If it tracks further southeast, temperatures will likely be cooler

There is very good agreement in the models below concerning the chance for rain. All models show rainfall chances will be near 100%. Obviously, snow is doubtful. Good Luck!!

Model High/Low

ModelNAMGFSRPMEURONBM
Overnight Low4949495247
Afternoon High5762606361

Model POP (Probability of Precipitation)

ModelNAMGFSRPMEURONBM
Rain %100100100100100
Snow %00000

Model Hourly Temperatures (study these carefully when fronts are near)

NAM12a3a6a9a12p3p6p9p12a
Temp505253495354525452
Cloud CoverOVOVOVOVOVOVOVOVOV
GFS
Temp495051535759585755
Cloud CoverOVOVOVOVOVOVOVOVOV
NBM
Temp495051535760575655
Cloud Cover %100100100100100100100100100
Current Contest Standings Through Day 15
School Name Pts/Day
Highland Park 4th Krafft 8.15
N. Desoto-Allen 8.38
Fairfield Elem-Kliebert 8.67
Fairfield Elem-Meerpohl 8.73
Highland Park 4th Ford 8.77
Goldonna Elem/Jr High 8.86
N. Desoto-Pierce 9.00
Fairfield Elem-Williams 9.07
ACE Hooks Jr. High 9.11
New Boston Middle 2 9.20
Westlawn Mjones M 9.33
St. James 5th 9.33
New Boston Middle 1 9.60
St. James 6th C 9.60
Highland Park 5th Montiel 9.64
N. Desoto-Burford 9.71
N. Desoto-Beeman 9.75
St. James 4th 9.80
N. Desoto-Darden 10.00
New Boston Middle 4 10.20
St. Joseph Catholic 10.21
N. Desoto-Sebren 10.25
Highland Park 5th Vaughn 10.29
New Boston Middle 3 10.40
N. Desoto-Arinder 10.42
Westlawn Mjones D 10.47
Westlawn Mjones R 10.53
N. Desoto-Harkins 10.57
Linden Elem-McNutt 10.92
Linden Elem-Haskins 11.00
St. James 6th D 11.53
Highland Park 4th Cruz 11.64
Highland Park 5th McGraw 11.73
Linden Elem-Martinez 12.23
Westlawn Kjones N 12.47
St. James 7th 12.47
Westlawn Kjones C 12.73
Westlawn Kjones K 12.87
St. James 6th A 13.27
St. James 6th B 17.33

Forecasting Contest Video

Forecasting Contest Video