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UAMS model forecasts significant continued growth in Arkansas coronavirus cases


Photo Courtesy: UAMS

LITTLE ROCK, Ark.- The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS) projects the state will continue to see increases in daily cases, hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19.

According to a report published online Tuesday by UAMS, the 15-day model forecasts 112,101 cumulative confirmed coronavirus cases and 526 probable cases in the state by November 16.

Officials say the 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between the ages of 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 cases and young adults 18 to 34 years old will have the second-highest number of cases. UAMS officials say the two age groups will be about 68% of the virus caseload.

According to the report, there could be 7,893 cumulative hospitalizations and 2,627 cumulative intensive care patients by November 16.

Officials say adults ages 60 to 74 are projected to have the greatest number of hospitalizations.

UAMS officials say if the mid-term model shows if the forecast holds true, there could be 2,443 more hospitalizations on December 30 than November 1.

According to the UAMS 15-day model, there could be 2,202 deaths due to the virus by November 16.

UAMS officials say the long-term eSIR model suggests the pandemic will peak in March or April 2021 with a range of 20,000 and 63,000 active cases.

To see the full report, click here.


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