SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) — Today, NOAA released their hurricane outlook for 2020. The forecast calls for an above average season in 2020. We can expect 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. On average, we should expect 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The factors leading to an above average season is the above-average warmth in the tropical Atlantic and the lack of El Nino. As of now, the ENSO or the El Nino Southern Oscillation is in a neutral phase. However, some forecast shows the possibility of the Atlantic entering into a La Nina. When La Nina occurs, the Pacific waters near the equator are cooler than normal and the phenomenon leads to more tropical development. On the flip side, El Nino leads to warmer waters in the Pacific and the wind shear is greater which suppresses tropical development in the Atlantic region.
If 2020 becomes an above average season, it would be five years in a row which dates back to 2016. The five year stretch would break the four year stretch back in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
So far, we have seen Tropical Storm Arthur develop near the Atlantic Coast. It brought some rain and wind impacts to North and South Carolina.
For more information about today’s outlook, be sure to click here.