4pm NHC Advisory Update: Cristobal has accelerated to the north and still has max wind speeds of 40 mph. The latest landfall projection is for early Sunday evening near Morgan City, LA. Max winds by that time should be in the 60-65 mph range. The storm will weaken as it crosses I-20 near Monroe Monday morning. It still appears that the ArkLaTex could see an inch or two of rain. See details in the video update below.
Latest Weather Authority Forecast:
Look for a hot, humid, and mainly dry weekend. Tropical Storm Cristobal to move across Louisiana Sunday night and Monday. The latest NHC forecast track shows a shift back to the east.
Friday was another partly cloudy, hot, and humid day around the ArkLaTex with limited rainfall. We are watching some thunderstorms to our northeast that some models indicate could make it into our area tonight in a much weaker state. It is quite possible that this activity will fall apart before making it into our area. Saturday looks to be another partly cloudy day around the area. It will stay hot and humid as morning low temperatures will likely be in the low to middle 70s. Look for daytime highs Saturday in the low to middle 90s. Rain is looking unlikely but can’t totally be ruled out. We will see a 10-20% chance for the stray mainly afternoon storm. We will see similar conditions Sunday as Cristobal approaches the coast of Louisiana. Expect lows Sunday morning to be in the low to middle 70s. Daytime highs will once again be in the low to middle 90s. Once again, a stray afternoon storm will be possible, but unlikely.
Rain chance will begin to pick up late Sunday night and Monday as Cristobal begins to move across Louisiana. Recent model runs have shifted back to the east as it appears that Cristobal could take a course across NE Louisiana well to the east of our area. IF this latest projection pans out, it means that Cristobal’s impacts on the ArkLaTex will be less severe. Most models now show that the eastern half of our area could receive an inch or two. The western half of the area will likely receive less than an inch. Closer to the storm’s path and to its east, rainfall totals will likely end up in the three to six-inch range. We will have to continue to watch Cristobal closely. Models have not been very consistent from model run to model run. The one global model that has persistently shown a course through the heart of our area has now also shifted well east. That leads me to believe that it is looking more likely at this point that Cristobal’s worst will occur well to the east of our area.
Once Cristobal departs Tuesday, we will likely see a rapid return of sunshine. That sunshine could combine with a breezy SW wind to create the hottest day of the year so far. It is quite possible that daytime highs could climb into the mid to upper 90s. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and could bring another chance for some rain. Sunshine and drier air will settle into the ArkLaTex for the rest of next week and next weekend. Look for overnight lows to retreat to the low to middle 60s. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.