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9:15 pm Tuesday Tropical Update: Models still show storm could move east of our area but uncertainty remains high.

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The ArkLaTex sizzled today with highs in the mid-90s and triple-digit heat indices. It still appears that some relief from the heat could come by the end of the weekend as a possible tropical depression or tropical storm approaches from the southeast.

Latest tropical ‘spaghetti’ plot.

The model trend for the past 24 hours has been to move the soon to be developed system to the east of the ArkLaTex late this weekend or early next week. Spaghetti model plots show that the majority of models show this solution. However, a few models including Futurecast still show the storm moving further west into the ArkLaTex.

Futurecast’s projected position Saturday evening

If the storm were to move to our east, we would likely see rainfall totals of once inch or less depending on just how far east it moves. If it moves through or west of our area, we could see totals of three to six inches. The point is that even though it now looks like chances are that the worst will be to our east, we will need to pay close attention to this system as there is still a chance that we could get much heavier rainfall. Stay Tuned.

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