Expect some clouds Tuesday as a strong cold front invades the ArkLaTex. The dry weather will continue through Thursday with thunderstorms looking likely on Friday and Friday night. Most of the weekend is looking dry and warmer.
Monday was a mostly sunny and pleasant day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the 30s and 40s. Afternoon temperatures have soared into the low to middle 70s. Unfortunately, it appears that our warming trend will end Tuesday night. Another cold front will move into the area Tuesday afternoon and through the area Tuesday night. Temperatures ahead of the front Tuesday will likely warm into the mid to upper 70s over most of the area. Where the front arrives sooner over the northwestern edge of the area, highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Futurecast shows quite a few clouds as the front approaches and moves through. It does not appear as if we will see much rain. The rain will likely stay well to our north and northeast. Sunshine will return to the area Wednesday with below normal temperatures for this time of year. Look for lows Wednesday morning to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Daytime highs will be in the low to middle 60s.
Our next chance for some thunderstorms will likely hold off until late Friday and Friday night as a strong upper-level disturbance approaches from the west. Models are split on the extent of any severe weather threat for our area. As of right now, it appears that the chance for severe weather will be highest to our west in Texas and Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there will be a slight severe weather risk for these areas. We will know as Friday gets closer. Just be prepared for the possibility of some severe weather Friday evening and Friday night.
We could see some very heavy rain with this event. A blend of the models shows anywhere from one to two inches will be possible. Model outliers indicate that rainfall totals could exceed three inches.
Drier weather will settle back into the ArkLaTex as upper-level high pressure develops over the middle of the country this weekend and early next week. We should see some sunshine late Saturday through Monday with daytime highs eventually returning to the low to middle 80s. Overnight lows will settle into the 50s. The longer-range weather picture shows yet another disturbance bringing a chance of more strong to severe storm next Tuesday. Since temperatures will be much warmer and we will have much more moisture in place, severe weather will definitely be a possibility.