We will see a break from the rain Thursday with more sunshine and warmer temperatures. A cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the ArkLaTex Friday through Saturday. The Memorial Day weekend will end with sunshine. Rain returns Tuesday and continues through next week.
Wednesday began with more rain over the eastern half of the ArkLaTex. That rain has given way to a mix of lots of clouds and some sunshine. With temperatures Wednesday afternoon returning to the mid to upper 80s, a few pop-up t’showers will again be possible. Futurecast shows that if this activity does develop, it will quickly end Wednesday evening. Drier conditions will settle in Wednesday night and Thursday. We will likely see more sunshine Thursday. As a result, temperatures will likely warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A cold front to our north will likely trigger some strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon. These storms will move to the southeast and weaken Thursday night as they move into the northern part of our area late Thursday night and Friday morning. Severe weather will be possible in a few isolated areas. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will expand to the rest of the ArkLaTex Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a marginal severe weather risk meaning that any severe weather should remain rather isolated.
It still appears that most of the area will see anywhere from one to two more inches of rain from now through Saturday. As we have found out over the past few days, scattered higher amounts will definitely be possible. Right now it appears that the higher totals will fall over the northern half of the area.
We will dry out for a few days Sunday and Memorial Day. Temperatures during this time will be below normal with lows in the lower 60s and daytime highs in the low to middle 80s. The rest of the longer-range outlook is still looking depressingly soggy. Another upper-level trough will set up over the middle of the country and will create a southwesterly upper-level flow over us. This will allow the chance for the scattered thunderstorm to return Tuesday. That chance of rain very well could linger for more than a week.
Area lakes and rivers continue to flow at high levels. The Red River in Shreveport is forecast to crest at around 27.5 feet by the weekend. That is 2 1/2 feet below its flood stage of 30 feet. It very well could go higher than the current forecast with the rain anticipated over the next few weeks.