Update: Winter Weather Advisory for part of the area tonight; snow likely Monday with record cold Tuesday

Colder air will continue to invade the ArkLaTex.  Rain looks likely Wednesday night and Thursday with some freezing rain possible over the NW and NE corners of the area.  Snow still looks likely on Monday with several inches possible.

Wednesday has been a cloudy and chilly day around the ArkLaTex.  We have seen an increase in rain over the southern half of the area.  High temperatures have ranged from the 30s and low 40s NW to the 60s SE.  

The gradually cooling trend will continue Thursday.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be near or slightly above freezing over NE TX, SE OK, and SW AR and in the upper 30s to lower 40s over the southern half of the area.  Temperatures Thursday will not change much during the day as highs will range from the upper 30s north to the low to middle 40s south.

As an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west, look for rain to continue to increase from south to north Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.  Since the higher elevations of the Ouachitas over Western Arkansas are delaying the arrival of sub-freezing temperatures, most of the area will likely see only rain tonight.  However,  some freezing rain will be possible as the cold goes around the Ouachitas and invades the NE and NW corners of the area.  I can’t totally rule out the chance for some brief icing in Texarkana.  Futurecast shows that the rain will become more focused over East Texas and NW Louisiana during the day Thursday before ending Thursday night.  A few areas of light rain could be leftover Friday morning.

Colder air will continue to spill into our area this weekend as most of the weekend is looking dry for most of the area.  By Sunday, lows will dip into the low to middle 20s.  Daytime highs Sunday will barely climb above freezing into the low to middle 30s.

With the cold air in place, another disturbance will approach from the west.  Models continue to show good agreement that snow will be likely Monday.  It could begin as soon as late Sunday night and should end sometime late Monday or Monday evening.  If you consider a blend of the models, it would be reasonable to expect to see snowfall totals over the SE quarter of the area in the one to two-inch range.  The middle of the area including Shreveport could receive anywhere from two to four inches.  Areas near and north of Interstate 30 over the NW part of the area could see anywhere from four to six inches.  Obviously, we are still several days away from this event so expect some adjustments to this outlook.

IF all goes according to plan, this snow event will be different than most that we experience in our area in that it won’t fall in the morning and be gone by lunch.  Temperatures Monday will likely stay below freezing and we likely will dip well into the teens Monday night and barely climb above freezing Tuesday. That being said, we could see snow on the ground and on area streets for several days.  In fact, models continue to indicate another disturbance that could bring a mix of precipitation Wednesday.  You may want to think about preparing for the chance of being stuck at home for the first half of next week.  Stay Tuned!!

–Todd Warren