Don’t expect much rain for the next several days as the high humidity and above-normal temperatures stick around. A tropical depression will likely form in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. A chance of rain returns to the forecast this weekend.
Monday was a mostly sunny, hot, and humid day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the low to middle 70s and soared into the middle 90s this afternoon. Don’t look for any changes Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday morning will begin in the low to middle 70s at most locations. Daytime highs will likely return to the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values could surpass 105 in a few spots.
Upper-level high pressure will keep its grip on our weather pattern for the next several days. Consequently, Futurecast shows that we will likely continue to see lots of sunshine. Expect a clear to partly cloudy sky tonight. We will see lots of sunshine again tomorrow. We will stay clear to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Many models still indicate that a disturbance over the SW Gulf of Mexico will start to head north and could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later in the week. Tropical models are still not on board with this scenario so there remains a great deal of uncertainty as to if this will develop. If it does, we will likely see it approach the upper Texas our Louisiana coasts Friday or possibly early this weekend. It most likely will turn to the east or northeast and pass to our east. The National Hurricane Center indicates that there is a high chance of tropical development during the next five days.
If the storm does proceed as planned, the heaviest rain will likely stay to the east of the ArkLaTex as you can see by the model projection below. A blend of models shows that all of our area should receive less than an inch of rain with amounts approaching an inch over the southeast quarter of the area. Obviously, with the amount of uncertainty with this system, we likely will see some changes to the outlook in the coming days. Stay Tuned!