The strongest of the storms moved out the area by midnight Tuesday, replacing the wind threat with the potential for flash flooding in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday, particularly in southern De Soto Parish, northern Sabine and Red River parishes and northern Natchitoches Parish.
Radar rainfall estimates indicate the potential for 3 to 5 inches in some areas.
Our highest severe weather risk arrives Wednesday afternoon.
Thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday morning over the western half of the ArkLaTex. The broken line of storms will slowly strengthen as it moves east and will probably be at its strongest as it departs the eastern edge of the area late Wednesday afternoon. SPC indicates that there will be a slight risk where the storms develop over the western half of the area and a level 3 enhanced risk over the eastern half of the area. All severe weather threats will be possible including the chance for some tornadoes. That risk will be the highest east of Shreveport and Texarkana. The loop below contains the severe weather outlook for the week ahead including SPC’s Wednesday forecasts for wind, hail, and tornadoes.
Futurecast outlook: Futurecast shows our final round of thunderstorms developing over E & NE TX Wednesday morning. You can clearly see the expected increase in the intensity of the storms as they move east into NW LA and S AR. As of right now, it appears that Tuesday evening’s storms will move into both TXK and SHV at around 9 pm. Wednesday’s storms should increase over Texarkana early in the morning and arrive in Shreveport sometime around midday. We will likely see the clouds move out Wednesday evening in the wake of the storms. Expect a mostly clear sky Wednesday night as drier air moves in. Thursday is looking mostly sunny and pleasant.
Easter weekend outlook: After some sunshine Thursday and most of Friday, another shot at some scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to our area just in time for Easter weekend. We will likely see some scattered showers with some thunder beginning Friday night. That chance of rain will likely continue through Easter. Although severe weather cannot totally be ruled out, the risk is looking very low at this point. High temperatures this weekend will likely be near 80 degrees.