Breezy and mild Tuesday, heavy rain possible late Wednesday into Thursday

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A warm front will move across the ArkLaTex today bringing breezy and mild conditions. It gets messy in the upcoming days as a cold front will bring the potential for heavy rain late Wednesday into Thursday. A localized flash flood threat and a severe storm or two will be possible Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s at sunrise today, a cool morning but not too cold. We’ve had a few raindrops north of I-30, mainly through McCurtain County as the warm front continues to push north and out of the ArkLaTex. Don’t expect to see much if any rain today, but skies will likely stay mostly cloudy.

Temperatures will be mild to comfortable, as highs are forecast to be in the 60s or low 70s. You will definitely feel a breeze today, as a south wind will kick in behind the warm front at 10 to 20 miles per hour, with a few gusts in the 20 to 30 mile per hour range. This will return Gulf air to the region which will result in the fuel for heavy rain late Wednesday into Thursday.

A strong and slow-moving upper-level low will approach the ArkLaTex Wednesday afternoon. This will send a cold front into the region that will move across our neighborhoods at a snail’s pace Wednesday evening through Thursday.

At the moment we don’t expect any severe weather Wednesday, but thunderstorms are likely to develop Wednesday evening and be ongoing for much of the night in northeast Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Arkansas.

The front may briefly stall across the northern ArkLaTex Thursday morning before rain overspreads the remainder of the region. This will allow temperatures to warm along and south of I-20 into the 70s. Given the strong wind shear as the upper-low approaches we could see a few strong to severe storms mainly across the Toledo Bend region, and as far north as Shreveport/Bossier. A damaging wind gust or a brief tornado will be possible.

Rain will be ongoing for much of the day Thursday before drier air begins to end the rain west to east Thursday night into Friday morning. I can’t guarantee there won’t be any rain as we reach midnight and move into the New Year. Temperatures will also cool quickly, so prepare for what may be a breezy, chilly, and rainy New Year’s night.

The threat for the heaviest rain has shifted north, with accumulations expected to be in the 2 to 4-inch range across much of northeast Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Isolated amounts between 4 and 6 inches remain possible as well. Flash flooding, especially of roadways may be possible Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights the flash flood potential Thursday across the I-30 corridor.

Rain will taper off Thursday night into Friday morning with cool and dry air taking over New Year’s Day. Highs on January 1st will be in the 40s and 50s. Dry and comfortable weather is expected as we head into the weekend.