SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – An active weather pattern will take over this week, with several frontal passages resulting in heavy rain in the upcoming days. We may have a low-end threat for severe weather Wednesday and Thursday.
The first of the cold fronts is moving through this morning. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the I-30 corridor early in the morning, with most locations in east Texas and Louisiana starting out in the 50s. We have had some light rain across the I-20 corridor as the front will slowly move south carrying a few showers towards the Toledo Bend region this morning and into the afternoon. I would expect most areas will be dry today under otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies. The rain chance will remain highest along and south of I-20 through this evening.
The front will result in a temperature drop today as well, but it should remain fairly comfortable. We left off Sunday with highs near 70, but most areas should feel a 10-degree drop today with highs winding up in the upper 50s and low 60s with a light north breeze of 5 to 10 miles per hour.
This cold front will get pulled back north as a warm front tonight and that may result in a slight (20-percent) chance of a light rain shower tonight and tomorrow. Any rain associated with this warm front looks to impact mainly the northern ArkLaTex on Tuesday. Otherwise, tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
The stronger cold front will be pushed into the region by a slow moving upper-level low Wednesday into Thursday.
Wednesday: We may start out the day with overcast skies, but rain chances will increase during the day as the front moves in from the west. There may be a window for some strong to severe storms as temperatures ahead of the front may warm into the low 70s. Right now the threat of any severe weather looks to be isolated in nature, but details on any potential severe weather threat will become clearer in the upcoming days. High wind or an isolated tornado or two will be the threat late Wednesday. Right now we are not in the Storm Prediction Center’s day 3 outlook given the uncertainty with the timing of the front.
Thursday (New Year’s Eve): As the slow-moving low continues to move across the region rain will continue for much much of the morning and into the afternoon. It will be a cold rain with temperatures dropping into the 50s. There does look to be a window where any warm air lingering across the region may lead to a severe weather threat again, but given the timing questions uncertainty remains. Rain will taper off during the evening, but a lingering shower may impact any outdoor plans you may have outside on New Year’s Eve. Temperatures at midnight will likely be in the 30s or low 40s. At the moment we don’t expect the cold air to arrive in time to bring any snow.
Given this will be a 2-day rainfall event with the potential for multiple rounds of embedded thunderstorms we can expect to get a good soaking. Forecast models are showing 2 to 4 inches of rain across the entire ArkLaTex, with isolated accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. Given the drought conditions, the ground should be able to handle most of this, but localized roadway flooding is possible Thursday.
Drier air should bring some sun back on New Year’s Day (Friday), but it will be chilly with highs in the 40s and low 50s. The first weekend of 2021 is setting up to be a nice one, with dry weather and highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday.