Cooling trend begins with all eyes on the Gulf by the weekend (Evening Update)

Weather

A slow cooling trend begins Thursday with temperatures eventually falling below normal.  A possible tropical storm or hurricane could impact the ArkLaTex early next week.  Temperatures remain below normal into next weekend.

1-hour radar loop

Wednesday was another hot and humid day around the ArkLaTex.  Temperatures began in the mid to upper 70s and have once again warmed into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.  We will see a slow cooling trend during the day starting Thursday.  Temperatures Thursday will likely begin in the middle 70s.  Look for daytime highs to only be a few degrees cooler and still above normal.  We will likely see Thursday afternoon temperatures in the middle 90s.

Futurecast shows that we will see a mostly clear sky over the ArkLaTex Wednesday night.  Any of the spotty showers and thunderstorms that have developed this afternoon will likely end Wednesday evening.  Look for plenty of sunshine again Thursday with another slight chance for the random afternoon or early evening thunderstorm.  We will see a clear to partly cloudy sky Thursday night.  Friday will see another slight chance for the afternoon thunderstorm under a partly cloudy sky. We will close the workweek Friday with highs in the low to middle 90s.

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The front will be arriving early enough to cool highs across the northern ArkLaTex into the upper 70s and low 80s tomorrow, while the heat builds for another day across much of Louisiana and Texas where highs will be in the upper 80s.

It is looking likely that we will see a tropical storm or hurricane develop and eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.  Global models continue to show a more northerly trek through the Gulf with a possible landfall sometime early next week.  There is good agreement at this time that we could see a landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast.  Since this system has yet to develop, we likely will see some changes to its forecast in the coming days.  Just be prepared for the potential of heavy rain during the first half of next week.  As of right now, it appears that if we are impacted, conditions will be at their worst next Tuesday.  If this system track near our area, rainfall totals could exceed five inches over parts of the area. UPDATE: Afternoon model runs have trended more east. Live update coming up at 8:30 pm below.

The weather for the end of next week will be determined by how quickly our tropical system departs.  While most models show us returning to normal by next Thursday,  it is possible that the threat of rain could remain high into next weekend.  Next week will begin with highs in the 80s thanks to clouds and rain.  We should return to the lower 90s by the end of the week.  Overnight lows in the next 10 days will likely stay in the low to middle 70s. Join me for my nightly live update with the latest on this developing tropical system Wednesday evening at 8:30 pm below.

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–Todd Warren  

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