Your ArkLaTex Weather Authority Team

We stay dry until Sunday storms begin another soggy week

Weather

Sunshine will stick around into the weekend for most of the ArkLaTex. A warming trend begins Thursday and continues into the weekend.  The threat for thunderstorms returns Sunday and could linger through all of next week.

Wednesday was a pleasant day around the ArkLaTex.  Temperatures began in the 40s and 50s and rebounded into the 70s during the afternoon.  Look for the cool nights to continue leading up to the weekend.  Daytime highs should return to the 80s for most of the area.  We will see another pleasant day Thursday as temperatures will begin in the 50s.  Look for highs Thursday afternoon to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Futurecast shows that most of the area will see a clear sky Wednesday night.  We could see some clouds over the northern edge of the area.  Futurecast does show that a shower cannot be ruled out, but most models do keep all of our area dry. Those clouds and the very slight chance for rain will continue into Thursday for the northern part of the region.  These clouds are associated with a disturbance that will pass to our north.  This system will temporarily reinforce the drier air that we now have in place.

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That drier air won’t stick around forever.  The weekend will begin with a gusty south wind Saturday.  This will quickly return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to our area.  With that moisture in place, another disturbance will approach Sunday and trigger showers and thunderstorms.  Severe weather will be possible as our atmosphere will be rather unstable.  The jury is still out on the extent of any severe weather risk.

This front will likely stall somewhere close to our area and serve as the focus for the continuation of the thunderstorms risk Monday and Tuesday.  Most models show that we could see it drift far enough to the south to reduce the rain threat for the last half of next week. Models vary greatly on the amount of rain that we will see in the coming week.  It appears that amounts in the range of one to two inches would be a reasonable expectation with higher amounts possible.

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Highs through the weekend will likely be in the 80s for most of the area.  Overnight lows will eventually warm into the 60s and 70s.  Highs next week should be rather close to normal in the 70s and 80s.  Overnight lows will remain above normal in the 60s.

–Todd Warren

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