Expect a dry weekend with the potential of heavy rain next week

Weather

The dry air that we have enjoyed over the past week will likely stick around through most of the weekend.  A tropical depression could form over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring some decent rain to our area next week.

Friday was another rather pleasant day for the middle of September.  Temperatures began in the upper 50s to lower 60s and have warmed into the lower 90s Friday afternoon.  Look for the below-normal nighttime temperatures to stick around through the weekend.  Lows Friday night will likely settle back into the low to middle 60s.  Despite the rather cool start, daytime highs Saturday will soar into the middle 90s over most of the area. The good news is that the humidity will stay rather low.

Futurecast shows the impact of the dry air.  We will once again see a clear sky Friday night. The weekend will begin Saturday with a mostly sunny sky.  We will see a clear sky again Saturday night with lows mainly in the middle 60s.  Expect a few clouds to mix in with the sunshine Sunday especially over the southern half of the area.  We will likely not see much of any rain.

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The front will be arriving early enough to cool highs across the northern ArkLaTex into the upper 70s and low 80s tomorrow, while the heat builds for another day across much of Louisiana and Texas where highs will be in the upper 80s.

Tuesday forecast high temperatures

That will begin to change Monday.  The National Hurricane Center now indicates that it is likely that we will see a tropical depression or tropical storm develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.  As of right now, it is looking unlikely that this disturbance will gain too much strength.  However, models do show that it will move north into SE Texas early next week.  This will increase the threat of rain for our area starting Monday.  The rain will likely reach its peak Tuesday or Wednesday.  We should then dry out by the end of next week.

There is still a wide range of projections with long-range models as to how much rain we might receive.  A model blend shows that rainfall totals could be in the two to three-inch range over the southern edge of the area.  The middle of the ArkLaTex could see one to two inches.  Rainfall projections drop to below an inch over the northern part of the area.  There is obviously a great deal of uncertainty as to how this will eventually play out.  It does appear that this could be a slow-moving system so rain totals could end up being quite a bit higher.  Have a great weekend!

–Todd Warren 

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