SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – It has been feast or famine in the rain department over the past 24 hours. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all counties and parishes through Thursday morning, as thunderstorms could bring some pockets of heavy rain again today.
Radar is showing some weakening showers early this morning, I don’t expect any flash flooding issues for the morning commute.
Most of us have made it through the past 24 hours without seeing any significant high water issues. Radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen in some portions of Bowie County in Texas, and McCurtain County in Oklahoma. These will be the areas to watch for any roadway flooding this morning. Rain has underwhelmed in other areas, but it is expected to return today.
Forecast models are not in good agreement as to how the day will play out. Our in-house model (Futurecast below) is buying into widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms with this redevelopment occurring during the afternoon and evening. This is a possibility, but I have lowered rain chances slightly. The clouds today may help keep the temperatures slightly cooler and limit widespread storms from developing. This would be wonderful news as we are hoping to avoid any flash flooding and keep as much water out of our lakes and rivers as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a ‘Marginal Risk’ outlook for severe storms today. This is a low-end severe weather threat meaning 1 or 2 storms today would be capable of mainly high wind or hail somewhere in the ArkLaTex.
Temperatures will remain tolerable today, as we will be in the 60s this morning with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. We won’t see as much sun today which should keep us a few degrees below the high temperatures observed Monday and Tuesday.
The chance for scattered rain and thunderstorms will remain relatively high Thursday and Friday as well. Any one of these storms could drop a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain which is why the Flash Flood Watch will be in effect through at least Thursday morning.
The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows a ‘Slight Risk’ outlook for much of the region. The area in yellow is where they believe the flash flood threat is highest given the rain that has fallen and what is expected to come over the next 24 hours.
So how much additional rain will we see? It still looks like 2 to 3 inches of rain between now and Saturday. If we can keep that spread out over the next few days we will avoid flooding issues in most areas. Lakes and rivers will continue a slow rise through the weekend as runoff makes its way into our waterways.
See latest river/lake levels here: https://www.arklatexhomepage.com/weather/lake-levels-and-forecasts/
Rain will taper to an end in most areas by late Friday. There is still a slight chance we could see a few lingering showers mainly in east Texas Saturday. Most areas will enjoy dry weather this weekend but it will be warm and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s.