Thunderstorms will increase over the ArkLaTex Tuesday night and Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch continues with the heaviest rain falling over the western half of the area. Drier and warmer weather returns this weekend and continues through much of next week.
Tuesday was a mostly cloudy day around the ArkLaTex. After a dry start, thunderstorms developed over the NW half of the Arklatex Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that developed are moving out. Areas of more persistent rain will then develop to our west and move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. We will continue to see a good chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday, but the rain likely will not be as widespread nor heavy.
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The Storm Prediction Center still indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk over the northwest half of the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. If storms do become severe, damaging wind will likely be the biggest concern. The rest of the ArkLaTex will have a marginal severe weather risk which means that any severe weather issues should be rather isolated.
The biggest concern through Wednesday night will be the potential for flood-producing rainfall. Models are all over the place in their rainfall projections. The best way to illustrate where the rain will be heaviest is with the Excessive Rainfall Outlook provided by the Weather Prediction Center. Their outlook for Wednesday shows a moderate flood risk for much of NE TX in the areas of red. This part of the ArkLaTex will likely see rain totals of over 4”. It is possible that we could see isolated reports of over eight inches. Further east in the areas of yellow, I would expect anywhere from one to four inches of additional rain. This includes both Shreveport and Texarkana. The risk for flash flooding is lowest over the eastern part of the area in green where rainfall totals will likely be less than one inch.
If the above scenario plays out, the main issue for river and lake flooding will be in NE TX especially within the Sabine River basin. We will also need to keep an eye on Caddo Lake. The Red River would likely remain below its flood stage. We will know more once the rain has fallen.
We will finally see the upper-level disturbance responsible for all of this rain begin to lift away from our area Friday. Upper-level high pressure will then build in from the west and begin an extended period of dry weather for our area from Saturday through much of next week. We could a chance for the isolated to scattered thunderstorm return to the ArkLaTex just in time for Memorial Day weekend. This upper-level ridge will also bring warmer temperatures as highs will likely be in the upper 80s to near 90 for much of next week.