SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain today. As the front stalls across the northern ArkLaTex later today and tonight we may see localized flash flooding of roads and poor drainage areas occur. No severe weather is expected today, but we could see a few strong storms south of I-20 tomorrow.
We are expecting to receive scattered light rain showers throughout the morning across much of the ArkLaTex before rain picks up in coverage and intensity later in the day.
The cold front will begin to move into areas north of I-30 (McCurtain/Red River counties, etc) just before noon. Rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing across much of the I-30 corridor throughout the afternoon and evening. While rain may be lighter in coverage across the I-20 corridor through the afternoon, rain will pick up in these areas tonight and tomorrow. The final push of rain is expected to move through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening which could effect some outdoor New Year’s Eve plans you may have.
The primary threat for the ArkLaTex over the next 48 hours will be flash-flooding. Even though we have been in a drought, if we do see some of these repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms the ground will quickly saturate and excess rain will runoff into poor drainage areas and flood-prone roadways. This will especially be the case with any rain tonight and tomorrow. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday night for much of east Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. We could see a few more areas added to the Watch depending on where the cold front stalls.
The heaviest rain is likely to fall just north of the I-30 corridor as we could see some 4 to 6 inch accumulations on a line from Red River and Bowie counties in Texas, through McCurtain in Oklahoma, and into Littler River, Howard, and Sevier counties in Arkansas. Even if you are not in the Watch area, 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible through tomorrow night.
As an area of low pressure moves over the ArkLaTex tomorrow, wind shear will increase and that is key component to bring strong to severe storms. While the overall severe weather threat is low, a few storms south of I-20 will be capable of damaging wind and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will be highest near Sabine/Natchitoches parishes. The severe weather threat will come to an end in the evening.
As for temperatures, we are on the warm side of the front in most areas Wednesday. Highs will wind up in the 70s along and south of I-20, in the mid 60s in Texarkana, with cooler air taking over north of I-30 where temperatures will stay in the 50s throughout the day. Wind will be breezy, out of the southeast at 10 to 20 miles per hour. Cooler temperatures will arrive behind the departing rainfall Thursday for the rest of the ArkLaTex setting up what will be a breezy and chilly New Year’s Day.
Clouds may be slow to clear Friday for the New Year, but it will be dry with highs in the 50s. The weekend is going to be dry, cool, but comfortable with highs remaining in the 50s. A pair of sunny 60 degree days awaits early next week.