SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect through Thursday morning as we will begin to tap into the heavier rain across the ArkLaTex later this afternoon and evening. In addition to flash flooding, a few strong to severe storms are possible today and tomorrow.
Most areas should make it through the morning commute without seeing any heavy rain. There is a weakening complex of rain and thunderstorms moving into east Texas this morning. Cool air outflow from these dying thunderstorms may interact with our warm and humid air to spark up a few showers or isolated storms before noon, but I don’t expect any rain or severe weather through the first half of the day. Temperatures will be in the 60s this morning before warming into the low 80s this afternoon.
There are a lot of factors that will contribute to widespread thunderstorms by the late afternoon and early evening. We have a strong area of low pressure to our west in New Mexico that is driving these rounds of storms we have seen for the past few days. The warm and humid air and outflow boundaries from nearby storms will line up just right to see widespread storms develop this afternoon and continue through much of the evening and overnight hours. This will be our first round of potentially heavy rain.
There are a few ingredients in place for strong to severe storms later today as well. The Storm Prediction Center has a ‘Slight Risk’ or level 2 threat on a 1 to 5 scale across northeast Texas and Oklahoma. The main window for these severe storms would be during the afternoon and evening. As the storms move east severe weather is less likely as a ‘Marginal Risk’ or level 1 threat is expected in Arkansas and Louisiana.
Additional thunderstorms are likely Wednesday and Thursday with low-end severe weather threats. Any rounds of rain we receive between now and Thursday will add to an already saturated ground, and flash flooding is expected to develop. Forecast rainfall amounts for the remainder of the week will be 4 to 8 inches across much of east Texas and Oklahoma, and 2 to 4 inches across much of Louisiana and Arkansas.
Flash flooding of roads, creeks, and poor drainage areas is possible through Thursday. This rain will also bring further rises on area rivers and lakes.
You can view lake and river levels at: https://www.arklatexhomepage.com/weather/lake-levels-and-forecasts/
The thunderstorm threat should begin to decrease Friday, but we will still have some lingering showers and storms at times to close out the week.
The weekend is looking dry, but warmer. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday with humid conditions to follow the rain.