A strong cold front will finally move through the ArkLaTex bringing rain late Friday night through Saturday. Afternoon temperatures this weekend will be nearly 30 degrees cooler behind the front. Christmas week still looks dry with a warming trend.
Friday has been another unusually warm day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the 60s and have once again warmed to near-record levels in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Our streak of warm weather will end Saturday as a cold front rushes through the area. Temperatures Saturday morning will range from the 40s over the NW corner of the area to the mid to upper 60s over the SE. By Saturday afternoon, we will likely drop into the middle 40s NW to the low 50s SE.
Futurecast shows that we will see rain begin to move into the NW part of the area tonight. The rain will quickly expand to the southeast Saturday. I still don’t expect much of a severe weather threat. If we have any issues, it will come from strong wind. SPC does have a marginal severe weather risk over the SW part of the area. Like Thursday’s storms, if we have any issues, it will be very isolated. The rain will continue through Saturday and will likely end from NW to SE late Saturday afternoon and evening. Clouds will then begin to decrease Saturday night. We will see a mix of clouds and sunshine Sunday.
Models including Futurecast continue to show that most of the area will receive rainfall totals of ½ to 1”. It is possible that we could see heavier totals of 1-2” over the NW corner of the area. This very well could be all of the rain that we receive from now through Christmas weekend. Another upper-level disturbance will bring a slight chance of rain Monday, but if we receive any rain, it won’t be much.
Upper-level high pressure will begin to build back over the Gulf of Mexico next week. This will create another extended period of dry weather with a warming trend. Next week will begin with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. By the end of next week, we should see highs return to the low to middle 70s and lows return to the low to middle 50s. Christmas Day will be a pleasant day with lots of sunshine and highs in the low to middle 70s.