Updated: Tropical Depression #9 forms near Gulf, forecast updated below.
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – We are through the worst of our late August heatwave, but we won’t cool off enough today to get rid of the heat advisory which is in effect from noon until 6 p.m. We are still looking at the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to develop in the Gulf this weekend, there are still more questions than answers, but we need to monitor this in the ArkLaTex as this could bring impacts sometime between Sunday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will be the story again today as highs will be in the mid-90s (the lowest this week), but high humidity will bring heat index or ‘feels like’ temperatures of 105 to 108 degrees. One thing that may help out is an east breeze of 10 miles per hour which should make things slightly more tolerable outside this afternoon.
The other thing that could help is to get a little rain going again today. We did see a few scattered showers yesterday, but it was too late to provide much relief from the summer heat. If we see these spotty showers and storms again today it will be late in the day, with the chance for rain generally highest in Arkansas and Louisiana, but a few of these showers could wind up impacting east Texas as well.
High temperatures will drop off another degree or two Friday, and I think this will be enough to get rid of the heat advisory. A slight increase in the chance for afternoon showers this weekend may drop highs into the low 90s in some areas. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, the mornings will be dry, with a 30 percent chance of an afternoon shower both Saturday and Sunday.
The big question with this forecast is what exactly is going to happen in the tropics late this weekend and into early next week. Tropical Depression #9 has developed and will move into the Gulf Of Mexico tomorrow night. This system will potentially strengthen into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane and approach the Texas and Louisana coastline late this weekend into early next week.
Yesterday the forecast models were in agreement this would move directly over the ArkLaTex. This morning’s model runs have shifted the storm east, with a landfall in southeast Louisiana. The forecast model tracks are still showing a wide spread of potential landfall locations, and therefore a lot of uncertainty. We need to remain on high alert in the ArkLaTex for potential impacts anytime from late Sunday to Tuesday.
As of right now, the 7-day forecast reflects this storm moving east of us Monday, but we will be close enough to get rain, especially in Arkansas and Louisiana. We will be located on what is typically the ‘dry’ side of the storm where there are also fewer wind impacts. I have kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast Tuesday as well. All of this remains highly uncertain and we urge you to check back for updates in the upcoming days.