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Heat advisory continues. Likely Gulf depression could take more easterly course

Weather

Heat and high humidity to stick around for a few more days. Rain chances begin to increase a little for the last half of the workweek. Still watching the Gulf for likely tropical depression.

Tuesday was a partly cloudy, hot and very humid day. Temperatures began in the mid to upper 70s and warmed into the mid-90s. Humidity levels remain very high with dew points in the mid-70s. That combination of heat and humidity is producing heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees. A heat advisory is in effect through Wednesday as we will see little relief for the next few days. Don’t be surprised if that heat advisory is extended to Thursday. We didn’t see much rain across the area today and that will likely be the case Wednesday. Expect a partly cloudy sky Wednesday with a very slight chance for a few isolated late afternoon or early evening thunderstorm.

Pinpoint Doppler one hour loop

As upper-level high pressure shifts more to the northwest, that will allow the chance for the scattered storm to increase a little Thursday and Friday. At this time, anything that develops late in the work week will continue to be rather scattered in nature. Daytime highs will likely ease into the low to mid-90s by Friday. Overnight lows will likely stay in the mid to upper 70s. See the lates 36 hour outlook from Futurecast below:

Futurecast 36 hour outlook

We continue to watch a disturbance that will soon move south into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Models continue to indicate that this system will likely develop into a tropical depression during the next two or three days. Once the system invades the Gulf, it should begin to take on a more westerly coarse. Since this system has yet to develop, models remain very inconsistent from model to model and from model run to model run.

Tropical models show likely Gulf storm could move east of the ArkLaTex

The trend during the past several model runs has been slower and more east in projected paths. As of right now, it appears that this system could stay to the east of the ArkLaTex. That means that we would stay on the ‘dry’ side of its circulation where rainfall potential will be much lower. Does that mean that we are out of the woods? Absolutely not! This system could make landfall anywhere from Texas to Mississippi. We will all need to watch it closely. If it ends up moving through East Texas instead of to our east, we could see three to over six inches of rain. If it moves along the currently projected path to our east, amounts will less than an inch. Stay tuned!

Shreveport 7 day forecast
Texarkana 7 day forecast

Average High/Low for today’s date: 93/73.

–Todd Warren

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