Live weather update Wednesday 8:30 pm:
A strong cold front is easing its way into the area and will stall somewhere over the southern part of the area Wednesday night. The large upper-level low associated with this system will move through the area late Thursday and Thursday night finally ending the rain threat. We will continue to see widespread heavy rain mainly over the northwest half of the area behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday. All of the ArkLaTex will see several bands of heavy rain including a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening as the main upper-level system pushes into and through the area.
The biggest concern with this system will be the heavy rain that it will bring. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch that is in effect through much of Thursday night for the northwest half of the area. These areas can expect to see anywhere from three to over six inches of rain. The heaviest rain will likely fall over the NW edge of the area.
The severe weather risk associated with this disturbance is looking rather low. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there is a slight to enhanced risk over the southern edge of the area. Here, severe reports could be scattered in nature. There will be a small window Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening where a tornado will be possible over parts of Sabine and Natchitoches Parishes. An isolated severe storm is possible as far north as Interstate 20 in NW LA. This is where SPC indicates that the severe risk will be marginal. IF we have any severe weather issues, wind will likely be the cause, but again, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled.
Conditions should rapidly improve from south to north Thursday evening. As of right now, it appears that most of the heavier rain should move out of our area before midnight and the beginning of 2021. Expect a mix of sunshine and clouds on New Years Day with cool temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 40s to low to middle 50s. We will likely see plenty of sunshine this weekend with lows in the cold low to middle 30s. Daytime highs should return to the upper 50s to lower 60s by the end of the weekend.
The dry weather and warming trend will continue through Tuesday with highs returning to the low to middle 60s. Lows will slowly return to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Our next chance for rain will return next Wednesday and again next Friday. Friday’s disturbance promises to bring the best chance for more widespread and heavier rain, but rainfall amounts will not be as extreme as what’s on the way for the next few days. Stay Tuned!