Live weather update Tuesday 8:30 pm:
After a nice day around the ArkLaTex today with highs in the 60s & 70s, look for clouds to increase over the area Tuesday night as a strong disturbance digs into northern Mexico. This system will then move north through the middle of the country and will pass a little west of our area. Typically, when these upper-level systems dig south into Mexico they bring with them the potential for heavy rain. This disturbance will be no different.
We will see a cloudy and breezy day Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing for especially the northwestern half of the area Wednesday afternoon. The main focus for rain will stay over this part of the region Wednesday night. As the upper low finally moves north through Texas, the rain will begin to spread more south and east Thursday and Thursday night. The strongest band of thunderstorms will likely hold off until late Thursday and Thursday evening. This is the time that we will have a small chance for a severe thunderstorm or two. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a marginal risk for much of NW LA and a slight risk for the far southeastern edge of our area. Wind will probably be the biggest concern if storms reach severe limits.
Overall the main threat with this disturbance will be the potential for very heavy rain. Models including Futurecast continue to show that the heaviest rain will fall over the NW quarter of the area including the northern part of NE TX, much of SW AR, and all of SE OK. These areas should receive anywhere from three to five inches of rainfall. It looks possible that a few six-inch totals could occur in isolated spots. This could be enough to produce some scattered reports of flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center indicates that we shill have a ‘slight’ risk for flood-producing rainfall in these areas. The rest of the area should expect to receive anywhere from one to three inches of rain.
The rain will quickly end from south to north Thursday evening. We will likely see clouds decrease Thursday night with a mix of sunshine and clouds on the way Friday to usher in 2021. Temperatures Wednesday will once again soar into the 60s and 70s. We will cool into the 50s and 60s Thursday and to the 40s and 50s for highs Friday. Overnight lows for New Years Day will slip into the 30s and 40s. We could see lows dip into the upper 20s to low 30s by Saturday night. Daytime highs this weekend will likely be in the 50s.
Next week will begin on a dry and mild note. We’ll see plenty of sunshine both Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to middle 60s. Overnight lows will eventually warm back to the lower 40s. Our next chance for rain should hold off until next Wednesday. That rain threat could continue through next Friday. Tonight’s Two Week Weather Outlook below shows that the first half of January could feature near or above normal temperatures.