Live update Thursday 8:30 pm:
Thursday was a cloudy and cool day with some light rain here and there around the area. Temperatures were a little warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s.
The good news so far today is that yesterday’s models overestimated the amount of rain that we have seen so far. This very well could change Thursday night. There is still plenty of rain falling to our west in Texas. This activity will move into the ArkLaTex late tonight. It is still possible that we could see a few pockets of moderate to heavy rain but nothing that will cause too many issues. That rain will likely end from west to east late Friday morning. We will then see drier conditions Friday night and Saturday as the clouds hang around.
Temperatures Friday will be fairly steady as morning lows will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Daytime highs Friday afternoon will likely rise into the mid to upper 50s north to the upper 50s to low 60s. South.
A second disturbance will approach the area to close the weekend. Warmer air will begin to advance northward Saturday night causing areas of rain to develop. The leading edge of the warm air will likely be over the northern half of the area by Sunday afternoon. It will serve as a trigger for a few thunderstorms late Sunday into Sunday night. Some of this activity could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk over the NW edge of the area. This means that we could have scattered reports of severe weather issues in these areas. The severe risk will be more isolated elsewhere.
We will then see one final line of thunderstorms move through the area late Sunday night and Monday morning. Given the timing of this activity, the severe risk should be rather limited the way things look right now as the best instability will be to our south. Once this line clears, we will get another dry period of weather that will linger through Tuesday when some sunshine may finally appear. Models indicate that more rain could be possible Wednesday and again late Friday into Saturday. Futurecast shows that one to two inches of rain will be possible from now through Monday. If you add the rain later in the week, we could be looking at two to over three inches from now through next Saturday.
In the longer-range weather picture, it appears that February will get off to a mild start. We will likely see above-normal temperatures. See the details in tonight’s Two Week Weather Outlook below.