Live weather update Wednesday 8:30 pm:
A Tornado Watch is in effect for the NW edge of the ArkLaTex until 2 am. Strong storms over NC TX this evening could move into the watch area during the night. These storms will likely begin to decrease after midnight.
Wednesday was a mostly cloudy and warmer day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the 60s and 70s. Thanks to some sunshine mixing in with the clouds, afternoon temperatures have soared into the mid to upper 80s. We have seen a few scattered showers. Thursday will be another warm day for this time of year as lows will be in the 60s and low 70s. Daytime highs will range from the 70s north to the low to middle 80s south.
Futurecast shows that rain is still looking likely from very late Wednesday night into Thursday night. We will see showers and thunderstorms move into the NW edge of the area late Wednesday night. This band of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will gradually move to the southeast during the day Thursday. As it moves into E TX and NW LA during the afternoon, we will likely see an increase in storm intensity as the activity takes advantage of an increase in instability. It is possible that we could see a few strong to severe storms with wind damage as the biggest threat. An isolated tornado cannot totally be ruled out, but is looking rather unlikely. These storms will move out of the ArkLaTex late Thursday evening and Thursday night.
The Storm Prediction Center now indicates that we will have a ‘marginal’ severe weather risk for our area. That means that any severe weather issues should be rather isolated.
Another concern could be the threat of heavy rain. It still appears that most of the area should expect to see rainfall totals of one to two inches. It is possible that some locations will see a little less. It is also possible that a few isolated locations could see more than three inches of rain.
The main upper-level disturbance associated with this cold front is going to take a few days to meander through our area. Models are now in much better agreement that we will see this disturbance bring another chance for rain this weekend. We could see a few showers Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely increase Sunday. Temperatures this weekend will likely range from the upper 70s to lower 80s for daytime highs and the upper 50s to lower 60s for overnight lows.
More rain will be possible by the middle of next week as yet another disturbance moves over our area. Once this system clears, we could settle into a warmer and drier weather pattern for the end of next week.