Live update Monday 8:30 pm:
Monday was a partly to mostly cloudy day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began with lows in the 50s. Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the low to middle 80s. Temperatures will likely stay above normal around the area Tuesday despite lots of clouds. Temperatures Tuesday morning will not be as cool. We will likely see lows in the low to middle 60s. Daytime highs will likely range from the upper 70s NW to the low to middle 80s elsewhere.
Futurecast shows that we will see clouds increase over the ArkLaTex Monday night. Part of the area will see the return of some showers with some thunder. As of right now, it appears that the more northwest you live in our area, the better your chance of seeing rain will be. Even though temperatures will be rather warm, the threat of severe weather is looking extremely low. The threat of rain will decrease Tuesday night and Wednesday. We will continue to see lots of clouds Wednesday with only a slight chance for a few scattered showers. Most of the area will stay dry.
That will change Thursday as the main upper-level disturbance approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will increase during the day Thursday. Models show that instability associated with this disturbance should be rather low so the severe weather threat should be very limited. We will know more as Thursday approaches.
It does appear promising that much of the area will see quite a bit of rain. Models show that rainfall totals will likely be in the one to two-inch range for most of the area. It is possible that we could see higher totals of two to four inches over the northern half of the area. The rain will likely decrease Thursday night with only a slight chance for a lingering shower Friday.
The good news is that upper-level high pressure will build back over our area this weekend. This will dry us out and keep us warm. Look for highs this weekend to mainly be in the low to middle 80s. Overnight lows will be in the cool 50s. As the center of the upper ridge settles near our area early next week, we could see highs return to the mid to upper 80s. Lows will warm into the low to middle 60s. As of right now, it appears that most of next week could be dry.