Your ArkLaTex Weather Authority Team

More heavy rain expected Wednesday, Sunday’s winter precipitation now looks less promising

Weather

A cold front will bring rain to the ArkLaTex Wednesday.  Much cooler air returns behind the front and will stick around for a while.  A second disturbance could bring winter precipitation to the area Sunday.

Tuesday was another pleasant early January day.  After a cold start with lows in the low to middle 30s, daytime highs soared back into the 60s thanks to plenty of sunshine.  The streak of pleasant weather is about to end.  A cold front will move through the area Wednesday.  As the front approaches, look for clouds to increase late Tuesday night.  Rain will increase Wednesday as the front moves in.  It will likely continue well into Wednesday night.  Thanks to the clouds and rain, temperatures will not be as warm as we will see highs mainly in the 50s.  

Models are now indicating that most of the area will receive at least an inch of rain as the front moves through with two inches possible in spots.  While we could hear some thunder, severe weather is not expected due to limited instability.  The best chance for severe storms will be to the southwest of our area in SE TX.

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Cooler air will move into the area behind the front.  Thanks to lots of clouds Thursday.  Daytime highs will likely stay in the 40s.  We should see some sunshine return by Friday afternoon.  That will allow high temperatures to return to the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Overnight lows Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows will be in the low to middle 30s both Friday and Saturday.  

The weekend will begin with some sunshine Saturday.  Temperatures Saturday morning will be cold with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  Daytime highs should warm to the low to middle 50s.  The weekend will end Sunday with another strong disturbance moving through our area. 

For the past few days, most models indicated that this system would bring rain that could change over to a winter mix or even snow Sunday afternoon.  The lone exception was the EURO that sent most of the precip to our south. This morning’s model runs have changed. Now all of the models are indicating that most of the precipitation associated with this system will stay to our south. With the models losing the consistency that they had illustrated Sunday and yesterday, confidence in Sunday’s outlook is rather low at this point. I do think that there is a decent chance that we will see some winter precipitation, right now it doesn’t look like enough to cause any significant impacts. However, this very well could and probably will change at least a little. Stay Tuned!

–Todd Warren

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