Dry air limits the rain in the ArkLaTex as Nicholas continues to weaken

Weather

Nicholas will continue to weaken as it moves slowly towards the ENE. The most persistent rain will continue over the southern third of the ArkLaTex through Tuesday night.  The heaviest rain will remain well to our south with a few inches possible over the southern edge of our area.

1-hour radar loop

Tuesday was a cloudy day around the ArkLaTex.  Nicholas has or will soon weaken to a tropical depression and will continue to slowly move towards SW Louisiana.  Today’s rain has been confined to the southern half of the area and that will likely continue tonight and Wednesday.  The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center still shows Nicholas dissipating in the next few days over south-central Louisiana.

Thanks to some dry air being pulled into Nicholas’s circulation, most of the rain is falling on the east side of the storm.  This means that we will likely see the persistent rain continue over the southern third of the area through Tuesday night.  As Nicholas moves further east, rain should decrease in coverage and become more scattered during the day Wednesday.  Consequently, the risk of flooding will likely be highest to the south and east of the ArkLaTex.

CLICK HERE to see more forecasts from Futurecast.

Futurecast shows that rainfall totals will be rather light over most of our area with the northwest half of the ArkLaTex, including Shreveport, likely receiving less than an inch of rain.  Rainfall totals will be highest over the southeastern edge of the area where totals could exceed two inches.  We currently do not have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for our area.

The threat of rain will stay in the forecast for the next several days but should be very scattered in nature through the weekend.  After highs today in the low to middle 80s, we should start to warm up once Nicholas dissipates and the rain decreases.  Highs will return to near 90 by the weekend.  Lows will likely stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Our next best chance of rain will likely come from a cold front that is scheduled to push through our area by the middle of next week.  Right now rain chances are looking highest next Tuesday night and Wednesday. We could see some cooler temperatures by the end of next week with highs falling to the middle 80s and lows falling to the low to middle 60s. 

–Todd Warren  

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