A tropical disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico will bring some rain to the ArkLaTex from Thursday into the weekend. The Fourth of July is looking hot and mainly dry. Temperatures could flirt with triple digits again by the end of next week.
Warmer nights & normal days: Temperatures over the past few days have been below normal at night and near or slightly above normal during the day. Moisture will return from the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. This will result in warmer nighttime temperatures as lows will warm into the low to middle 70s. Thanks to more clouds and an increase in rain chances, highs will likely stay pretty close to normal in the low to middle 90s.
The chance of rain returns: Futurecast shows that we will likely see a clear to partly cloudy sky over the ArkLaTex Wednesday night. Expect a mix of sunshine and clouds Thursday. With more moisture in place, a few scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will be possible. That rain will likely decrease Thursday night. We will continue to see areas of rain Friday and Saturday that will probably be most widespread during the heat of the afternoon and early evening hours.
Why rain? The reason for the uptick in our rain chances is a disturbance over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates that it is a chance that this could briefly become a tropical depression as it approaches the Texas coast. This disturbance will be weakening as it moves through Texas Friday and Saturday. As a result, the heavy rain that we often see from tropical systems is not expected in our area.
How much rain: Models are rather split on how much rain we might see in the ArkLaTex. Futurecast is rather pessimistic on its rainfall projections showing that totals will likely be below ½ for all of the area. Other models do show that we could see scattered locations receive one to two inches of rain. That is not surprising given the scattered nature of the rain. It will be possible that some locations get next to nothing and others receive two inches.
The heat returns next week: Long-range models are still hinting that we could settle back into a rather hot and rather dry weather pattern late next week. The gulf system will move away from our area and we should see drier conditions by the Fourth of July holiday. Upper-level high pressure is forecast to develop over the southern part of the country next week. This will cause temperatures to heat up once again. Highs will likely return to the upper 90s to near 100. Overnight lows will warm back into the mid to upper 70s. A few pop-up afternoon storms will be possible late next week but any rain should be rather limited.