Look for rain across the area to remain rather scattered through Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Thursday night. Cooler air returns to the ArkLaTex this weekend.
Tuesday was a mostly cloudy and warmer day around the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms that have developed around the region will likely decrease Tuesday night. We will likely see similar conditions Wednesday. Expect a mostly cloudy sky with a chance for a few scattered afternoon or early evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will stay above normal. Look for lows Wednesday morning to mainly be in the low to middle 60s. Daytime highs will soar into the upper 70s to low 80s. It will also be rather breezy Wednesday with a south wind of ten to fifteen miles per hour.
Our next best chance for stronger and more widespread thunderstorm activity will be Thursday. An approaching cold front will combine with some upper-level support to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Some of the storms could become severe. Damaging wind and large hail will likely be the biggest threats but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that our severe weather risk for this period will be ‘slight’ or two on the one to five risk scale.
The front will move through the ArkLaTex Thursday night and Friday. Look for the heaviest of the rain to shift to the south as the front moves south. We will likely continue to see plenty of rain around the area Friday. Futurecast still shows that part of the area will receive less than an inch during the next few days. I would expect to see at least an inch anywhere in the ArkLaTex. We will also see spots that see rainfall totals in the two to three-inch range through Friday.
We will turn cooler behind the cold front this weekend. Look for lows to fall into the 40s. Daytime highs will likely dip into the 50s. Models continue to indicate a pretty good break from the rain Saturday. That break likely won’t last very long. Look for more showers to return Saturday night. This threat for rain will reach its peak Sunday and then decrease as we head into the first half of next week. If you add up the rain from Thursday, Friday and Sunday, it is possible that a few spots see rainfall totals exceed four inches through next Tuesday. Right now, it appears that the chance of that happening is highest over the southern quarter of the area. Warmer air will begin to return to the ArkLaTex by the middle of next week with highs returning to near 80 degrees by next Wednesday.