Look for rain chances to decrease for a few days before picking up later in the week. Several inches of rain will be possible in the next few weeks with below normal temperatures. A warmer and drier weather pattern may settle in by the end of next week.
Tuesday was a mostly cloudy day around the ArkLaTex. Thanks to lots of clouds, temperatures have again stayed below normal for this time of year. Another disturbance moving through the area has once again triggered some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Futurecast shows that this activity will likely move out of the area Tuesday night. As of right now, it appears that we will see rather low rainfall chances for the next few days. Most models show that any rain that develops should be rather isolated Wednesday with a slight increase in coverage Thursday.
Another upper-level disturbance will develop over the southern plains by the end of the week. This will begin to increase the threat of rain Friday. We will likely see widespread areas of showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend. That good chance of rain will continue into the first half of next week as the disturbance remains stalled to our west. The risk of severe weather with this system is looking rather low.
We will see well above normal rainfall during this period. Right now the majority of longer-range models show that most of the area can expect to receive anywhere from two to over five inches of rainfall. Area lakes and rivers are already running very high. The Red River in Shreveport is just a foot below flood stage but is forecast a slow fall for a few days. If the rainfall forecast indicated by models verifies, we likely will see another rise develop by the middle of June.
We should finally see the upper-level disturbance be replaced by upper-level high pressure by the very end of next week. This will greatly reduce the threat of rain and bring more normal temperatures for this time of year. Until then, highs in the week ahead will mainly be in the low to the middle 80s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. It is quite possible that we could see temperatures remain below 90 through the next few weeks.