Live update Thursday 8:30 pm:
The threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to shift south Thursday night and Friday. The chance for rain will decrease Saturday and increase again Sunday. More storms will be possible Tuesday followed by an extended period of dry weather.
Thursday was a cloudy and stormy day across most of the ArkLaTex. The day began with showers and thunderstorms mainly focused over the northern half of the area. A cold front responsible for the rain has been slowly drifting southward. This will continue to decrease the rain over the northern part of the area and increase the rain over the south. Futurecast shows that the threat of showers and thunderstorms will become focused over East Texas and Northwest Louisiana Thursday night and Friday.
We will likely see a few strong storms Thursday evening and Thursday night. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there is a marginal severe weather risk for our area. This means that any severe weather issues will be rather isolated. Our biggest threat will come from damaging wind. The tornado threat is looking very low.
Another concern could come from the potential for heavy rain Thursday evening and Thursday night. High-resolution models do indicate that anywhere from two to four inches of rain could fall on the southern half of the area mainly south of Interstate 20.
The front will likely fizzle out and then our main concern will shift to the main upper-level disturbance that won’t move through our area until Saturday night and Sunday. We will continue to see a few scattered showers Friday and Saturday. As the main upper-level disturbance approaches, we will once again see an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday. Timing will be important. If this system moves through later Sunday, we could be warm enough to allow for a threat for severe weather.
Next week will begin with a dry day Monday as we will be between disturbances. It will be very warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. With this warm and humid air in place, another disturbance will bring more storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Our atmosphere will be very unstable as this system moves through. This means that we will once again have a chance for strong to severe storms. SPC already has a slight risk for the southern plains to our west Monday and Monday night. Timing will again be important with this system as if it moves through later Tuesday, our severe weather threat will be higher.
Once this system moves through, we will settle into a warm and dry weather pattern that will last through the rest of next week. Highs will mainly be in the low to middle 80s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s and 60s. It is possible that we could stay totally dry through next weekend.