SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A lot we are watching in the weather pattern between now and Easter weekend. Record high temperatures are possible today as well as a late-day strong thunderstorm or two, and the severe weather threat will increase Easter weekend.
Staring out your Wednesday morning with temperatures in the 60s and low 70s with patchy fog, and isolated pockets of dense fog. We will see a little more sunshine today, and high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s. A forecast high of 90° in Shreveport would break the old record of 89° set in 1882, and 88° would tie the record high in Texarkana set in 2011.
This will be a short-lived heat wave as a cold front will move into the northern ArkLaTex late in the day, with cooler air spilling in tonight and tomorrow. We may see a few isolated thunderstorms pop-up. Due to the very warm air in place ahead of the front 1 or 2 storms could become strong/severe with a damaging wind gust or large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has our severe weather risk as ‘marginal’, a low-end level 1 threat on the 1 to 5 scale.
We will see a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. If we do see any thunderstorms it will be much later in the day, likely late afternoon and evening. This front won’t bring much rain, but it will bring a few lightly scattered rain showers tonight and tomorrow. There is no severe weather threat Thursday or Friday.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s Thursday, and we’ll remain mostly cloudy and cooler Friday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon. A strong upper level low will move out of the southwest U.S. this weekend and bring the potential for severe storms in the ArkLaTex late Saturday, and possibly Easter Sunday. The SPC indicates that the region is in a ‘slight risk’ both days. All hazards (wind, hail, tornadoes) will be possible.
There remains a lot of uncertainty with Sunday’s forecast. The GFS/American model pushes storms east of us quickly which would limit any heavy rain or severe weather threat. The European models holds the storms in the ArkLaTex Sunday, which would lead to extended threat for severe weather and potential heavy rain with accumulations over 2 inches in some areas. Check back frequently this week for updates.