Risk of Sunday night severe weather now looks lower

Weather

We continue to watch the first of two disturbances that will bring a chance of strong to severe storms to the area Sunday night.  The risk of severe weather looks low at this point.  The second disturbance will bring a chance for more storms Wednesday.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the northwest of the ArkLaTex late Sunday afternoon.  This line will likely move to the southeast and enter the NW edge of our area late Sunday evening.  The latest models including Futurecast show that the line will likely be below severe limits as it moves into the area.  Severe weather cannot be ruled out just yet as we will still have a chance for a few isolated reports of damaging wind.  This line will rapidly decrease as it moves towards the AR/LA border late Sunday night.  Monday will begin with a chance for a few lingering showers over the southern half of the area.  It will likely end with an increase in sunshine from north to south during the afternoon.  Expect a clear to partly cloudy sky Monday night and a mix of sunshine and clouds Tuesday.

CLICK HERE to see more forecasts from Futurecast.

The second disturbance will likely take a course that will be much further south.  Consequently, it stands to bring much more needed rain to our area.  Futurecast shows that we could see rainfall totals of more than one inch over much of the area. Most of that rain will fall very late Tuesday night through Wednesday.  Given the expected timing of this system, it appears that if we have any severe weather issues, they will be most likely confined to the eastern half of the area where the storms arrive later in the day. 

Much cooler air will then invade the ArkLaTex and settle in for a while.  Highs will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday and Friday.  We will then see highs settle into the low to middle 70s next weekend and much of the next week.  Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Once Wednesday’s rain ends, we should stay dry until the last half of next week.

-Todd Warren

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