SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – We have made it to June, and this month will begin like the entire month of May, warm and rainy.
We have a few rain showers ongoing this morning, so the morning commute will bring wet roadways but we won’t have any steady or heavy rain until later this morning. Temperatures are warmer as well as the Gulf air has returned, and early day temperatures will be in the low 70s.
The chance for scattered thunderstorms is expected to increase by later this morning as a cold front approaches the region from the west. We should see an uptick in rain and thunderstorms across east Texas and Oklahoma by the late morning and early afternoon. This broken line of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will move east bringing rain to much of Arkansas and Louisiana by the early to mid-afternoon. These storms should be moving quick enough to avoid any threat of flash flooding, but isolated areas of heavy rain that produce road flooding can’t be ruled out. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s which will be the range we see for the next 7 days or so.
If we can warm up enough the thunderstorms will be capable of strong updrafts and downdrafts which would lead to a damaging wind threat with 1 or 2 storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but an isolated severe storm or two is possible. The threat of hail and tornadoes is extremely low.
The warm and rainy pattern is expected to remain with us through the next 7 days. This will be due to a stalled cold front, and several upper-level lows to the west of us that keep the warm and humid air flowing over the stalled front. This setup will trigger the repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms.
If there is any good news for the ArkLaTex, it’s that we are not under a Flash Flood Watch at this point. The rain should move through quick enough, and be spread out enough that we dodge any flash flooding through Thursday. I am concerned about a potential increase in the intensity and coverage of the rain Friday through Sunday. Right now the forecast models remain in the 1 to 3-inch range over the next 7 days, with higher amounts definitely possible. Lakes and rivers will run near or in flood stage throughout the week and likely into next week as well.
Latest water levels: https://www.arklatexhomepage.com/weather/lake-levels-and-forecasts/