SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Round 1 of potential severe weather fizzled out last night, and rounds 2 and 3 will impact the ArkLaTex later today and tomorrow. These next 2 rounds will be widespread and bring all potential severe weather hazards.

Warm and breezy through sunset: The weather pattern will remain relatively quiet this morning, but it will be a breezy, humid, and warm morning with temperatures in the 70s. We will wind up with highs in the low 80s this afternoon, a south wind of 15 to 20 miles per hour, with occasional gusts up to 30 miles per hour.

Tuesday afternoon forecast high temperatures

Severe weather threat increases by late afternoon and early evening: While we may see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m., the severe weather threat will ramp up between 6 p.m. and midnight. Thunderstorms will develop along a dryline in central Texas, and then move into the ArkLaTex around sunset. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all areas in a ‘Slight Risk’ outlook, a level 2 threat on a 1 to 5 scale. This means scattered severe storms are expected.

Severe thunderstorm risk late this afternoon into tonight

A higher risk of severe weather Wednesday:

We will likely see a break from rain and severe weather between midnight and 7 a.m., but our next line of thunderstorms will develop during the morning Wednesday and continue into the afternoon. This line of thunderstorms will be strengthened by an incoming cold front and strong upper level winds. The SPC has much of east Texas and Oklahoma in a ‘Slight Risk’ outlook for the morning hours, with an ‘Enhanced Risk’ outlook for much of Arkansas and Louisiana during the late morning and early afternoon. In additon to damaging wind and hail there is potential for a strong tornado or two tomorrow (EF-2+). The threat of severe weather will end by the mid to late afternoon as the storms move east. Over the next 36 hours most areas will average .5 to 1 inch of rain, but a few spots could see between 1 to 2 inches of rain. The flash flood threat is low.

Severe weather risk Wednesday morning through mid-afternoon
36-hour Futurecast forecast (updated every hour)

A better chance of rain could come for more of our area a week from this Friday. By that time, we will definitely be in need of good rain!

Dry and cooler Wednesday night into Thursday:

While this cold front won’t bring a lot of cold air, it will cool temperatures into the 40s and low 50s under clearing skies Wednesday night. Expect dry weather Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s, and we should enjoy more sunshine Thursday as well.

More storms on the way Easter weekend: A warm front will move into the ArkLaTex late Friday and stall near or just north of us this weekend. This front will bring the potential of scattered rain and storms Friday night, Saturday, and again Easter Sunday. While severe weather can’t be ruled in, it can’t be ruled out. We may see some low-end potential for a few strong storms over the weekend and into early next week.

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