We will see a few scattered storms Monday night that could be severe.  The severe weather threat will increase Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.  Severe storms could return Wednesday over the eastern two-thirds of the area.

Pinpoint Doppler
Current severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings with radar

Slight change of Monday night storms:  We had a pretty nice weekend of weather across the ArkLaTex.  Unfortunately, that taste of nice weather is pretty much over.  We will likely see a few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms in the ArkLaTex from now through Wednesday.  Most of the ArkLaTex will stay dry Monday night with a slight chance for a few storms over the extreme northern edge of the area. While the Storm Prediction Center indicates that most of the area will have a chance for some strong to severe storms.  Most hi-res models show that tonight’s storms will likely develop near the northern edge of our area to areas further north in Arkansas. Below is a loop that contains various forecasts from SPC, current watches and warnings with radar, and area power outages if any occur. 

Severe Weather Risk in the week ahead

A stormy Tuesday and Wednesday: Our next round of severe weather will likely come late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon.  SPC indicates a level 2 ‘slight’ severe weather risk Tuesday and a level 3 ‘enhance’ risk Wednesday.  The main severe risks for Monday night will be wind and hail.  All severe weather risks will be elevated both Tuesday and Wednesday including the chance for several tornadoes. The loop below contains the severe weather outlook for the week ahead including SPC’s Tuesday forecasts for wind, hail, and tornadoes.       

36-hour Futurecast forecast (updated every hour)

Futurecast outlook: Futurecast is in line with other hi-res models in showing that most of the area will stay dry for the rest of the day today and tonight.  Again, we will have to keep an eye on the northern edge of our area.  If we do see any issues with severe weather tonight, that is where they will occur.  The threat of severe weather will increase Tuesday with a few rounds of storms possible.  We could see some storms develop over the southern half of the area during the morning that will increase as they move north during the afternoon.  More storms will then develop to our west Tuesday afternoon that will move through the ArkLaTex Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Another round of storms will likely develop somewhere in the ArkLaTex Wednesday morning and strengthen as it moves east.  Consequently, Wednesday’s severe weather risk will likely be highest over the eastern half of the area.  Know that the farther west these storms develop in our area, the higher our risk of severe weather will be.

Futurecast Rainfall Potential through Wednesday

Rainfall potential: The thunderstorms that we experience over the next few days will be rather scattered.  That will lead to a wide range of rainfall totals.  Most of the area will receive ½ to 1” of rainfall.  We will likely have several pockets where 1-3” will be possible.

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