Sunshine returns for most of Thursday with warmer temperatures. Strong to severe storms look likely Friday and Friday night. A pleasant weekend will give way to a second round of strong to severe storms by the middle of next week.
Thursday was a sunny and mild day around the ArkLaTex. Shreveport tied a record with a low of 40 degrees. Texarkana set a new record low at 35 degrees. Thanks to plenty of sunshine temperatures have warmed into the 60s. Expect another chilly night tonight as lows around the area will dip into the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures Thursday will be warmer as we will likely see highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Futurecast shows that most of the area will see a mostly clear sky tonight. We will likely see more clouds over the northern third of the area where there will be a slight chance for some light rain. Sunshine will return to most of the area Thursday. However, late in the day clouds will begin to invade the area from the west. We will see a cloudy sky Thursday night with a slight chance for a scattered shower. Rain will increase Friday as a strong disturbance approaches from the west. Expect thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon with several possibly becoming severe.
The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a marginal to slight risk for severe weather. As of right now, it appears that instability will be highest over the southern half of the area. This is where the severe risk will be highest. All severe weather threats will be possible including the chance for a few tornadoes especially over the southern half of the area.
Look for the rain to end from west to east Friday night. Most models including Futurecast indicate that rainfall totals will be anywhere from one to two inches. It is possible that we could see a few isolated locations surpass three inches.
Sunshine will return for most of the weekend with a nice warming trend. Look for daytime highs to return to the upper 70s to lower 80s. We will continue to warm up early next week with highs in the low to middle 80s. Low will warm to the low to middle 60s. With this warm and more humid air in place, a second disturbance will bring the potential for strong to severe storms by the middle of the week. Right now, it appears that the chance for storms will be highest Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is still some difference in the timing of this activity so some changes should be expected. Next week will end with some sunshine Thursday and Friday. A third disturbance could bring the threat of thunderstorms again next weekend.