A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 11 pm for SE Oklahoma, most of SW Arkansas, NE Texas, as well as all of East Texas along and south of I-20 and Caddo and Bossier Parishes in NW Louisiana until 1 am.
It appears that a round of severe weather is on tap for us tonight, but it also appears that a heavy rain event will unfold for us as we go through Sunday into much of the workweek.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will move into the plains states. It will bring an associated cold front into the ArkLaTex this evening and overnight into Sunday. As this happens, an upper-level low will develop along the southeastern coast of Louisiana. This low will move northwestward toward our area which will help with an uptick of rain and storms across the Southeastern ArkLaTex. With these two systems in play, rain and storms will intensify.
Severe storms could develop with the most likely threat being high and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. The hail and tornado threat will be quite marginal. However, neither can be ruled out. The cold front may slow significantly as it moves through the area into Sunday. This could lead to possible flash flooding. The cold front eventually stalls along the coast of Louisiana.
This gives us a bit of a reprieve on Monday. The front begins to move back as a warm front and our rain and storms increase once again as a series of disturbances moves across our soggy atmosphere. The possible excessive rainfall could lead to significant rises in area waterways. Finally, a new upper-level system and a cold front move through the plains into and through the ArkLaTex. That will bring drier air into the region just in time for the Memorial Day holiday weekend.