SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – 11 PM Update: Our risk for severe weather is coming to an end for the ArkLaTex. We are watching a line of showers and storms in North Central Texas. The latest radar trends show the line weakening. Hopefully, the trend continues into the overnight hours. Although, the line of storms could produce some heavy downpours and gusty winds. By sunrise, the thunderstorms should be out of the ArkLaTex. The weekend is looking great!
8 PM Update: So far so good in the ArkLaTex! A Tornado Watch and Flash Flood Watch remain for the southern edge of the viewing area. The strongest of the storms are just to the south of the ArkLaTex. In my opinion, I believe our tornado risk is beginning to decrease. However, I am slightly concern with the amount of rain that is falling in the region.
For portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas, the radar is estimating some 2-3″ rainfall amounts. For areas south of Natchitoches and Sabine Parishes, rainfall totals are now over 3-4″. We will continue to follow the heavy rain and flooding potential! If you encounter water over the road, remember to TURN AROUND AND DON’T DROWN!!
2 PM Update: A Tornado Watch has now been issued for the southern parts of Northwest Louisiana and Shelby County in Texas until 9 PM. So far, showers and storms are developing to the west of the ArkLaTex. Later this afternoon, we should see thunderstorm coverage begin to increase over the southwestern parts of the area. Again, all modes of severe weather will be possible today. The highest threat for seeing a few isolated tornadoes will be south of Interstate 20. The second round of showers and storms will move in early Saturday morning!
Confidence is increasing that we will see severe thunderstorms this afternoon, and all severe weather hazards will be possible including heavy rain that could lead to some roadway flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center has put much of the ArkLaTex in the ‘Enhanced Risk ‘ outlook for severe storms. This is a level 3 threat on the 1 to 5 scale. The severe weather window will open by mid-afternoon (2-4 p.m.) and continue for a few hours past midnight.
By definition, an ‘Enhanced Risk’ means numerous severe storms possible, significant wind damage, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. Storm coverage is expected to be widespread with a few intense persistent thunderstorms.
We may see an occasional light rain shower through the morning, but no severe weather is expected through at least 1 p.m.
We will begin to see thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity across east Texas and Oklahoma by 2-4 p.m. As these storms initially get going they will be capable of large hail. As a warm front moves in south of I-20 by 4 to 5 p.m. the threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will increase. The warm front will bring very heavy rain as it moves into the I-20 corridor this evening. We will also likely see heavy rain and severe weather near the I-30 corridor as well as the initial round of storms strengthens and moves east. After sunset, this will primarily become a damaging wind and flash flood threat, with storms winding down close to midnight in all areas.
A significant threat for some areas tonight will be flash flooding. Widespread accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are likely, and a corridor of rainfall in the 3 to 5-inch range will be possible near the I-20 corridor. Flash flooding is possible on roads and in poor drainage areas.
Rain will likely end by sunrise leaving us a very nice weekend. Your temperatures today (Friday), will be noticeably warmer in the morning starting out near 60 degrees, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.
It will be breezy Saturday, but this dry north wind will drop our humidity, bring sunshine back, which will warm our highs into the 70s and low 80s. Sunday will be mostly sunny with highs near 80 degrees again.
Next week will begin dry but we will see another strong storm system move in midweek. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact timing of the highest severe weather threat will come into focus in the upcoming days.