The rain has ended temporarily for much of the ArkLaTex. Models show the potential for more very heavy rain late Monday night into Tuesday over the northern half of the area. Upper-level high pressure will bring drier conditions for the rest of the week with plenty of heat and humidity.
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Monday was another mostly cloudy, warm, and humid day around the ArkLaTex. Another area of strong thunderstorms made its way through the area bringing heavy rain. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Monday night. High-resolution models indicate that parts of the area could see additional rainfall totals in the four to six-inch range. It’s impossible to pinpoint where this will happen, but it appears that the main focus of the heavier rain will be over the northern half of the area and especially in Southwest Arkansas..
Futurecast shows more potentially heavy rain developing over the northern edge of the area Monday night. It could persist well into Tuesday and then end as it moves south late Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Otherwise, we will see a mix of clouds and a little bit of sunshine Tuesday that will warm us into the mid to upper 80s. This should be enough to trigger scattered thunderstorms that will be most widespread Tuesday afternoon. I don’t expect to see much of a severe weather threat at this point. If we do have severe weather issues Tuesday, it will be very isolated.
Upper-level high pressure will then build over the southern plains during the last half of the workweek. This will finally give us a break from the rain. However, it will also bring some of the hottest temperatures of the year so far. Daytime highs from Wednesday through the weekend will likely climb into the lower 90s. A few locations could see highs in the middle 90s. It will also be very humid. The combination of heat and humidity could produce heat index values that approach 100 degrees.
The upper-level ridge will ease back to the west by the end of the weekend. This will allow the chance for scattered afternoon storms to return to the forecast starting Sunday. That threat of rain will likely stay in the forecast through most of next week. It will also reduce the intensity of the heat. Daytime highs will ease back into the upper 80s. Overnight lows for most of the ten-day forecast will be in the low to middle 70s.