A significant severe weather outbreak is possible in the ArkLaTex very late Friday and Friday night. SPC upgrades our severe risk to ‘moderate’.
Live severe weather update Thursday 8:30 pm:
This will be a quick live update on the severe weather threat on the way for Friday night. It will include the very latest timing from Futurecast on possible timing and rainfall potential. The moderate risk for severe storms continues. The biggest threat will be damaging straight-line wind gusts of up to 80 mph. Several tornadoes will also be possible.
Thursday was a cloudy and mild day around the ArkLaTex with a few scattered showers. Conditions will worsen as the combination of a strong cold front and strong upper-level disturbance approach from the west. Friday will begin with some scattered showers in the morning. The rain should remain rather scattered and light for most of the day. Late in the afternoon, we will see thunderstorms increase in coverage and strength near and to the west of our area. A line of storms will eventually form to our west that will slowly move through the ArkLaTex from late Friday evening through Friday night.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our severe weather risk outlook to ‘moderate’ for much of East Texas and Northwest Louisiana and a small part of Southwest Arkansas. This means that widespread areas of severe weather should be expected in these areas including several tornadoes and the possibility for a few strong and long track tornadoes. The rest of the area is still in an ‘enhanced’ risk meaning that severe weather is several severe weather reports.
In addition to the tornado threat, another worry with this disturbance will be the potential for widespread straight-line wind damage from winds of 60 to 70 mph. Large hail will also be possible but those reports will be somewhat more isolated. Flash flooding also cannot be ruled out with much of the area possibly in line to receive over two inches of rain. It is possible that we could see a few areas over the northwest half of the region that receive more than four inches of rain.
The main line of storms is expected to enter the northwest edge of the area by the mid to late evening hours. It will exit the ArkLaTex late Friday night an hour or two before sunrise. In addition to the severe threat from the main line, we could see some discreet cells develop sooner ahead of the line. These storms, if they form, will pose a greater threat for tornadoes that could be strong, long-track storms. See the latest outlook on the possible timing of the storms with the continuously updated outlook from Futurecast above.
Come back to this article to see a live update on Friday night’s severe weather threat Thursday evening at 8:30 pm.
–Todd Warren
