The warm temperatures will stick around through New Year’s Day with two disturbances bringing a chance for thunderstorms.  The severe weather threat looks highest on New Year’s Day.  The coldest air of the season arrives early next week.

Monday has been another mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm day around the ArkLaTex.  Temperatures began in the mid to upper 60s over most of the area.  We have warmed into the mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon.  Don’t look for much change in temperatures for the next several days.  Tuesday will likely begin with lows in the low to middle 60s.  Daytime highs will likely stay in the mid to upper 70s.

Futurecast shows that we will continue to see lots of clouds with this warm and humid air in place.  Expect a cloudy sky tonight.  Tuesday we will stay mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers possible.  A weak front will approach the area Tuesday night and move through Wednesday.  This will bring another chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Severe storms will be possible, but the risk with this disturbance is looking rather low.  

We will see drier conditions Thursday and most of Friday.  A strong cold front will then approach the area on New Year’s Day and move through the area Saturday night.  This front will have more upper-level support and will bring a larger threat of severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center already indicates that there will be a slight severe weather risk for the eastern part of the ArkLaTex with all severe weather threats possible including the chance for tornadoes.

Much colder air will filter in behind this cold front.  One model indicates that some winter precipitation will be possible over the northern part of the area, but most models indicate that we will not get cold enough before the moisture needed for precipitation moves out of our area.  Temperatures ahead of the front will likely stay in the 70s for highs and 50s and 60s for lows.  Behind the front, we will dip in the 40s and 50s for highs.  Lows will plummet into the mid to upper 20s Monday night.   The cold air won’t hang around for long.  We could see temperatures back up close to 70 degrees by the last half of next week.

Most models still show that we will likely see below normal rainfall amounts during the next ten days.  Most of the ArkLaTex will see amounts of around one inch.  We could see a few locations that receive more than two inches.

-Todd Warren