Strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday night; sunshine returns for Wednesday and Thanksgiving

Weather

Cold front to bring a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Tuesday night.  Thanksgiving Day looks pleasant with some sunshine.  A second disturbance will bring the threat of heavy rain starting Friday.  The coldest air of the season is on the way next week.

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Tuesday was a mostly cloudy and windy day around the ArkLaTex.  Temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s to the middle 70s.  A cold front will bring the likelihood of thunderstorms tonight.  A line will form very late this evening just to our northwest.  This line will move through the area during the night arriving in Texarkana at around 2 am and in Shreveport between 3 and 4 am.  It will likely exit the southeast edge of the area early Wednesday morning.  The Storm Prediction Center still indicates that we have a marginal severe weather risk.  That means that any severe weather issues should be isolated.  If we have any severe weather, damaging wind will likely be the main concern.  Hail will be possible but shouldn’t cause too many issues.

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Sunshine will return to the area Wednesday and will likely stick around through most of Thanksgiving Day.  Temperatures behind this front won’t cool down much at all.  Look for highs Wednesday to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  We’ll see highs on Thanksgiving Day in the low to middle 70s.  

A second disturbance will approach the area Friday.  It will bring more rain that will be heavy at times.  We will likely have a few thunderstorms mainly Friday, but the threat for severe weather is looking rather low at this point.  The main concern with this slow-moving system will be the potential for heavy rain.  Models still indicate that one to two inches of rain will be possible over the northern half of the area and two to seven inches will be possible over the south.  This rain will be spread out over several days.  We could see the rain threat stick around into Sunday night.  

Drier air will then move into the area early next week.  It is quite possible that we could see our first freeze of the season next Monday night as lows dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  Daytime highs next week will only be in the 50s.  Long-range models are hinting that our next disturbance could bring a cold rain late next Wednesday through next Thursday.  

–Todd Warren

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