Thunderstorms continue to move into the ArkLaTex. While we will see the storms produce some strong wind, it now appears that any severe risk will be rather isolated. We currently have now watches in effect for our area.
Thursday has turned out to be a partly cloudy and rather hot day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures began in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Afternoon temperatures have climbed close to 90 degrees. A cold front will bring thunderstorms to the area Thursday night and Friday morning. It will also bring cooler temperatures with highs Friday in the low to middle 80s.
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Futurecast shows thunderstorms developing along the front to the north of our area Thursday afternoon. This activity will quickly head south into our area very late Thursday evening with the initial line possible arriving in Texarkana near or shortly before midnight. They will arrive in Shreveport a few hours later and then continue to move south late Thursday night into Friday morning. This initial round of storms will end Friday morning. It is possible that we could see new development somewhere over the southern half of the ArkLaTex Friday afternoon. The jury is still out on exactly where it will occur if it does at all. We will likely see more rain develop to our west Friday night that could move across the southern half of the area Saturday morning.
While the storms will likely be weakening as they enter the area tonight, severe weather will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a level 2 slight severe risk over the area’s northern edge with a level 1 marginal risk further south where the storms arrive later. Damaging wind will be our main concern. It’s unlikely that we will see severe weather with Saturday’s potential storms.
Flash flooding is not expected to be a widespread concern, however, there will be a few isolated areas mainly in Northeast Texas that receive over two inches of rain. Futurecast shows that much of the area will receive less than an inch of rain over the next few days. Amounts will likely be an inch or more mainly over the western edge of the area.
Drier weather will settle into the ArkLaTex for much of Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day. Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front this weekend. Look for highs to be in the low to middle 80s. Lows will settle into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s. Normal lows are in the middle 60s.
Another large upper-level trough will develop to our west by the middle of next week and bring another lengthy period where rain will be possible. We will see a slight chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday. Rain chances will be higher from Wednesday through next Friday. We could begin to see the rain threat decrease by next weekend. Highs next week will mainly be in the middle 80s. Lows will mainly be in the upper 60s.
We will need to keep an eye on area lakes and rivers for the next few weeks. Caddo lake is now near a crest slightly above flood stage. Forecasts for the Red River are also a little higher than yesterday. The Red River in Shreveport is now forecast to crest this weekend two feet below flood stage at 28 feet. The river is forecast to rise above flood stage north of De Kalb.