Storms that develop late Sunday afternoon will move through the ArkLaTex Sunday night. Severe weather will be possible mainly over the NW quarter of the area. The warm temperatures will stick around until much cooler air arrives next weekend.
A strong disturbance will be moving across the middle of the country Sunday night and Monday. Thunderstorms will develop over the Plains late Sunday afternoon and will move east Sunday evening and Sunday night. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that the severe weather risk from this system will likely be highest over most of central and eastern Oklahoma. Those areas have a moderate severe weather risk with all severe weather risks possible including several tornadoes. The risk in the ArkLaTex will be highest over the NW edge of the area and decrease as you look southeast. By the time the storms reach Shreveport, any severe weather concerns should be rather isolated.
Most models including Futurecast show that the line of storms will approach the northwest corner of the ArkLaTex at around midnight and should be in the process of slowly weakening. The weakening will continue during the night as the line heads southeast. Look for the line to arrive in Texarkana at around 2 am, in Shreveport at around 4 am, and Natchitoches at around sunrise. Damaging wind will be the most widespread threat Sunday night. Some hail will be possible, but reports of severe hail of at least quarter-sized should be very isolated. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but that risk is looking low given the decrease in rotation potential indicated by models such as Futurecast here. Any leftover rain around the area will quickly end Monday morning and we will likely end Monday with the return of some sunshine. Flooding doesn’t look to be a big concern as most of the area will receive less than an inch of rain.
We will stay rather warm through the upcoming week with highs staying in the low to middle 80s and lows staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is due to the continuation of an upper-level southwesterly flow that will keep us mostly cloudy and keep a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. We will likely see the next best chance of rain in the ArkLaTex Thursday and Friday as a strong cold front approaches and then eventually moves through the area. Since the best upper-level support from this system will be well to our north, I don’t anticipate any widespread severe weather issues at this time.
Much cooler air will move into the ArkLaTex just in time for next weekend. Highs next weekend will likely be in the low to middle 70s. Overnight lows could dip into the 40s over most of the area by next Monday morning. We will likely stay below normal through most of the following week.