Your ArkLaTex Weather Authority Team

Strong to severe storms still possible this weekend and again Wednesday

Weather

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast through Saturday evening. Strong to severe storms still a possibility Sunday. More storms possible for the middle of next week with the severe risk looking uncertain. A warm and dry weather pattern settles in to close next week.

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Friday was a mostly cloudy day around the ArkLaTex. Any scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be confined to the southern half of the area and should come to an end Friday. Most of Saturday is now looking dry as models show pretty good agreement that any pop-up showers and thunderstorms will likely hold off until late Saturday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center still indicates that there is a marginal severe weather risk. IF we see any severe weather issues Saturday evening, they will be very isolated.

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The chance for strong to severe storms will be higher Sunday. Models have trended more south with the location of the strongest storms. SPC has also shifted the ‘enhanced’ risk area to the extreme southeastern edge of the area. While we still have a few days until this event, it is becoming clearer that the highest severe risk will be to the south and east of our area. That being said, Futurecast shows some very strong storms Sunday afternoon over parts of Sabine and Natchitoches parishes. It indicates that these storms could be rotating and could drop some large hail. Keep in mind that things could still change so stay tuned. All of us will have some severe weather risk. Wind, hail and a tornado or two will be possible and most widespread over the SE edge of the ArkLaTex. Rainfall potential will likely be highest over the south half of the area where an inch or two will be possible.

We’ll see a quiet period for Monday and Tuesday expect a mix of sunshine and clouds highs will be pretty close to normal in the mid-70s Monday and the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday. A second storm system will approach the area Wednesday. As of right now, it appears that the strongest storms could occur to the south of the ArkLaTex along the coasts of TX and LA. Obviously, this far out we likely will see some changes in this outlook.

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Once this second disturbance clears the area, we should settle into a drier and warmer weather pattern for the end of next week. Daytime highs will return to the low to middle 80s. Overnight lows will settle into the upper 50s to low 60s. We could stay dry through next weekend, however, some models do show a slight chance for rain Sunday.

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Todd Warren

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