A strong cold front will bring thunderstorms to the ArkLaTex late Sunday night and Monday morning.  Severe weather will be possible.  More rain will be possible Tuesday.  Warmer temperatures return by the end of the week with more rain next weekend.

After a record high Saturday afternoon of 81 degrees in Shreveport, temperatures Sunday have been slightly cooler.  We began the day with lows in the low to middle 60s.  We have warmed into the mid to upper 70s.  A strong cold front will bring big changes Monday.  Temperatures Monday morning will range from the middle 50s north to the upper 60s to low 70s south.  We will likely see falling temperatures throughout the day with readings at 5 pm ranging from the middle 40s north to the middle 50s south.

The cold front will likely bring a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to the area.  Futurecast shows that the line will arrive in the ArkLaTex well after midnight and will likely be moving through Texarkana at around  3-4 am and Shreveport between 5-7 am.  It appears that damaging wind will be the biggest concern with these storms but large hail and an isolated tornado will also be possible.  The heaviest rain will move out of the area during the morning.  We will then take a pause in the rain for most of the area Monday night.  More rain will move across especially the southeastern half of the area Tuesday.  

Click here to see the latest hail and rotation potential from Futurecast

While the Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a ‘slight’ severe weather risk over the northern half of the area and a marginal risk elsewhere, most models show that the storms will likely be strongest over the southern half of the area.  This is the part of the area that will also receive the heaviest rain.  Rainfall totals will likely exceed one inch over the south and should be in the ½ to 1” range over the north.

The last half of the workweek will feature dry weather with a warming trend.  Highs Wednesday will return to the low to middle 60s.  We could see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s once again by Friday.  Overnight lows will warm from the low 40s Tuesday to the low 60s Friday.  Another cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area Saturday. This front is not going to be as strong.  We will close next weekend with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cooler temperatures won’t stick around long as we will close the 10 day period with highs back into the 70s by the middle of next week.

-Todd Warren

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